Trump vs Harris: Who Will Win 2024 Presidential Election

Trump’s odds to win the presidency are -180 at our BetUS sportsbook, and Harris is an outsider at +155. However, the political betting landscape is always changing, and with only days to the election, anything can happen.

2024 Presidential Election Prediction

1. What the Odds Tell Us

There has been a big swing with Trump Presidential odds over the last few weeks, and it’s a telling sign for the former President. He drifted to +130 at one stage in betting, but there has been a whirlwind of betting support since.

The 2016 election winner is now the firm -180 favorite, and that’s enough for us to believe he has the best chance of winning. However, betting markets are merely a prediction as to what will happen, and just like any sporting event, it comes down to who wins on the day.

Kamala Harris Presidential odds have subsequently drifted to +155, but we expect her to have some support closer to election time. It’s a good price for a candidate that is just about even in the polls, and she’s ahead with some polls. She was a +170 chance two days ago, so there has been some support for her.

The odds tell us that Trump will win, and it comes down to who wins the swing states. It’s awfully close at the time of writing, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the election went either way. However, we’re all about making a pick and our pick is Trump, albeit by the skin of his teeth.

2. What Key Factors Could Swing the 2024 Election?

There are many key factors determining Trump vs Harris election odds, which have been the result of a wild and wacky election campaign

Trump has been his usual self, which depending on who you vote for, is either good or bad. Regardless of what it is, he’s polarizing, and that’s important when it comes to election time. We saw it in 2016, we saw it when Barack Obama won, and often the more polarizing candidate gets the win.

There was also the attempted assassinations on Trump, which arguably helped his campaign. He earned some new fans with his “fist of solidarity” and although that news is ancient in the grand scheme of things, many fence sitters could have jumped over to this side.

It’s why Trump Presidential odds firmed so dramatically. We expected Trump to retake favoritism following Harris’ bid for the Democratic nominee, but we didn’t expect Trump to get to -180.

It’s about as low as we would want to take for Trump. If he gets to -200, that’s far too short in our opinion, and we would rather back Harris at the better odds, despite our prediction seeing Trump win enough swing states to win the election.

However, as it stands with Trump at -180, those odds are worth taking, including in parlays. It could be the best price bettors get for Trump, and although it’s a close race, he appears to be edging away.

3. Predicting Swing States

As is the case with any election, it comes down to the swing states. Trump and Harris are paying short odds to win the states they’re meant to win, but it’s much closer in the swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Most of the swing state election odds have Trump favored to win, but Harris has every chance to win many of the states. She’s ahead with polls in some of the states, so although we’re backing Trump to win, Harris won’t be overrun in the most important states.

Pennsylvania is the most important as it holds the biggest number of electoral college votes of the swing states. If Trump wins, he all but has the election in the bag. However, if Harris wins, it would make things a lot closer than the +155 would suggest.

As shown on The Conversation, Trump has a narrow edge in the Pennsylvania polls.

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favorite in (Nate) Silver’s model,” the report reads.

“In Silver’s averages, Trump has a 0.6-point lead in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), up from 0.3 on Monday. Trump has slightly larger leads of one to two points in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11). Harris is narrowly ahead by 0.1 point in Nevada (six) and about one point ahead in Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (ten).”

Trump vs Harris election odds paint a one-sided picture. We doubt it’ll be a one-sided election, but our prediction is Trump winning and serving his second term as the US President.

Bet on Trump to Win US Presidential Election (-180)

Questions Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.