Why Donald Trump Will Win the 2024 Election

The Republican candidate was the politics betting underdog a few weeks ago, but it has been one-way traffic since. He is currently trading at -210 to win the election, having been a +120 underdog just weeks ago.

Nothing is guaranteed in politics, but bettors should feel confident of Trump winning based on the market. Let’s dive in to help you make your 2024 US Elections picks.

Why Donald Trump Can Win

Leading Battleground States

Polls shouldn’t be taken as gospel when it comes to deciding the next US President, but momentum is with Trump.

He is ahead in many of the battleground/swing states, which is why his odds have moved so dramatically. Polls are just a guide, but bettors who have locked in Trump to win will be feeling confident about their chances.

It’s hard to look past the latest polling figures, and there have been some Democratic followers suggesting Trump has the election in the bag. However, if he loses Pennsylvania, those confidence levels won’t be as high.

It’s an important state for both candidates, and after Harris had an early lead, Trump has got himself back into the hunt in Pennsylvania. He faced some backlash when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made negative comments about Puerto Rico, which the Trump administration attempted to distance itself from.

“It’s spreading like wildfire through the community,” said Norberto Dominguez, a precinct captain with the local Democratic party in Allentown, who noted his own family is half Republican and half Democratic voters.

“It’s not the smartest thing to do, to insult people — a large group of voters here in a swing state — and then go to their home asking for votes,” Dominguez said.

It didn’t affect the next US President odds, which firmed following the comedian’s comments. Trump’s campaign was also helped by the latest gaffe from Joe Biden, who labelled Trump supporters as “garbage” – though he quickly clarified to say the remark was aimed at Hinchcliffe.

BREAKING: Donald Trump is riding in a garbage truck less than 24 hours after Joe Biden called his supporters “garbage” pic.twitter.com/KCfW2WsIe0

— America (@america) October 30, 2024

A Man of the People?

There is a strong case that Trump relates to the people more than Harris. That’s only a claim, but it’s something Trump used during his 2016 campaign.

He threatened to derail politicians and the political nature of Washington, and his backers, and many swing voters decided that was enough for them. He hasn’t used the same rhetoric in 2024, having been President for four years, but he comes across as more relatable, especially to men.

Harris has struggled with the male vote, and that’s why Trump excels in betting markets. We’re not saying having a President who uses the same language as a group of guys at the local bar is a good thing, but it’s important when it comes to knowing why he gets votes.

Insults have also been traded back and forth between Harris and Trump, but with the election so close, Biden’s choice of words has given Trump ammo to attack his political opponent.

“Joe Biden’s comments were the direct result of Kamala’s efforts to portray everyone who is not voting for her as … subhuman,” Trump says. This statement is false – Harris has been careful not to insult Trump supporters, beyond calling them ‘“weird.”

Trump might not win the popular vote on the back of this, and he’s the current underdog with popular vote odds, but he’s the firm favorite to win the election, and he’ll take some stopping.

Is Trump a Value Bet?

There are many reasons why Trump could win the election, but bettors are getting odds that are the worst possible value available.

Trump at +120/+130 was a great bet, but -210 is getting short, and there are some polls suggesting he’s behind with early voters in some swing states. That’s a cause for concern, but we expect those polls to even out.

It’s a close race, but with four years under his belt and a growing popularity, Trump will be tough to beat on election night. He has steadily gained momentum, and having survived assassination attempts won’t be forgotten.

They were polarizing events, and as well as the Democrats did well to deflect, Harris’ honeymoon period, at least according to 2024 election odds, has ended.

Questions Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.