Champions League Final Props: Double Up on Vinicius, Real Madrid

Real Madrid to Come Away with the Trophy

There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and Real Madrid winning the Champions League Finals. At least, that’s what it feels like. After all, they’ve lost just three in their history (1962, 1964 and 1981). Since that loss to Liverpool 43 years ago, they’ve won eight Champions League Finals, and it’s no surprise that Real is the odds-on favorite at -165 to come away with a victory against Borussia Dortmund (+440).

However, it’s worth noting that Real Madrid have only lost two matches this season in all competitions. Both losses came to Atletico Madrid, and both losses came with Aurelien Tchouameni on the bench.

With Tchouameni set to miss the final due to injury, Real could be incentivized to take fewer risks in possession. The Frenchman has excelled at the center back and the central defensive midfield position, helping to orchestrate the first phase of build-up, break up attacking transitions, and utilize his physicality in ground duels and aerial battles.

Real Madrid have played 53 matches this season — they’ve lost just two.

Both defeats came to Atlético Madrid, and both came with Aurélien Tchouaméni on the bench.@keepIT_tactical on how Tchouaméni became the indispensable fulcrum of Real’s midfield: https://t.co/9JshKeC5O9 pic.twitter.com/4KKfuzA3Yf

— Breaking The Lines (@BTLvid) May 22, 2024

Real will be well aware of Dortmund’s threat in transition, and they will be desperate to not leave their defense exposed and not concede an early goal. As such, we’re inclined to say that this match will be a fairly low-scoring affair between two sides that have excelled at soaking up pressure and hitting on the counter.

Dortmund have been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde this season, finishing outside of the top four in the Bundesliga for the first time in nine years. Of their 34 Bundesliga matches, they’ve drawn nine and lost seven, and whilst they have managed to come out on top against PSV Eindhoven, Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, beating Real Madrid in a Champions League Final is one of the hardest things in sports.

It’s fairly rare that you’ll see a high-scoring shootout in European finals. Each of the last four Champions League finals have featured just one goal whilst there hasn’t been a single final to feature over 4.5 goals since Real’s 4-1 win vs. Juventus in 2017.

We’re backing a low-scoring Real win in our Champions League parlays. Don’t overthink this – take Real to win and under 4.5 goals at -105.

Champions League Prop: Vinicius to Score or Assist (+100)

With Jude Bellingham returning to his home country and facing off against his former club, all the headlines will be on the newly minted La Liga Player of the Season to step up and provide the goals. However, we’re expecting the hero to be not Bellingham, but Vinicius Junior.

At 23 years of age, Vinicius has cemented himself as one of the finest players in world football, capable of generating acceleration from a standing start and running his fullback ragged, and skilled at holding his own with his pace and physicality.

Two years after scoring the winning goal in the UEFA Champions League Final against Liverpool, Vinicius continues to go from strength to strength and step up to the occasion. Since the start of April, he’s bagged a brace of assists vs. Manchester City, a goal and an assist vs. Barcelona and Bayern Munich and a brace vs. Alaves.

The Brazilian forward picked up the Man of the Match award in both of the semifinals against Bayern Munich, and there’s a good chance he’ll get another one under his belt at Wembley Stadium.

This match will not just determine the Champions League winner, but it could also go a long ways toward determining the Ballon d’Or winner as well. Vinicius and Bellingham are perhaps the two strongest candidates for the award, and we’re backing Vini to solidify his case with a top-notch display and lead Real to victory in our Champions League soccer props.

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