While Napoli already won the Serie A title and secured its ticket for the UEFA Champions League, the other three spots are still up for grabs. With only five games left, six in some cases, there are only six points between second and seventh place.
From now on, each match can be considered a final, including AC Milan vs. Lazio, especially for Milan, which could fall to seventh place if it doesn’t win. The Serie A odds are on Milan’s side despite the visitors being in second place.
AC Milan: Disappointing
Midweek, AC Milan played host to Cremonese, one of the three teams in the relegation zone, and barely managed to win a point despite finishing the match with one more player. David Okereke scored the opener for the visitors in the 77th minute, while Junior Messias scored the equalizer in stoppage time.
Milan won possession with 74% and finished with 18 shots, 12 more than Cremonese, but weren’t effective in front of goal. That was the club’s fourth draw in its last five Serie A matches, making it fall to sixth place.
Let’s not forget that we’re talking about one of the UEFA Champions League semifinalists. Milan has been considerably better when playing at home, where it owns a 10-4-2 record, scoring in eight of its last 10 games at San Siro and finishing with a clean sheet six times.
Regarding the Serie A lines, AC Milan is offering a -110 price, which is very good for a team led by an inspired Rafael Leao, who has scored 12 goals and leads the team in assists with seven. He’s the main reason Milan’s odds could improve through Serie A live betting.
Lazio: Back to Winning Ways
After losing 3-1 to Inter Milan on Sunday, also at San Siro, Lazio returned to the winning column by defeating Sassuolo 2-0. Felipe Anderson scored the opener only 14 minutes into the game, while Toma Basic sealed the deal in the second half. Lazio finished with three more shots on target despite losing possession with 48%.
That result allowed it to remain in second place with 64 points, one more than Juventus, which will face a tough road test against Atalanta on Sunday. This means Lazio should do everything it takes to defeat AC Milan and potentially increase the gap between the two.
Lazio comes in as the Serie A betting underdog. That’s extremely good for a well-balanced team with the second-best defensive unit, conceding 24 goals in 33 games. On offense, Ciro Immobile, Mattia Zaccagni and Felipe Anderson have scored 29 goals between them.
Finally, unlike Milan, finishing in the Serie A top four is all Lazio has left, meaning it has no margin for error.
AC Milan vs Lazio Head-to-Head
Lazio crushed AC Milan 4-0 in the previous meeting, with Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Mattia Zaccagni, Luis Alberto and Felipe Anderson as the scorers. AC Milan won possession with 51% but only took three shots on target.
These two are used to putting up a good show. The total has gone over in seven of their last 10 encounters. The total for Saturday’s clash is set at 2½ goals, with the over offering a +125 price in the sportsbook.
AC Milan vs Lazio Match Information
- Match: AC Milan vs Lazio
- Date: Saturday, May 6
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Location: San Siro, Milan
- AC Milan vs Lazio Live stream: fubo.tv
AC Milan vs Lazio Betting Lines
AC Milan vs Lazio Picks and Prediction
AC Milan is focused on winning the UCL, and the first leg of the semifinals against Inter Milan is scheduled for Wednesday. So, I expect manager Stefano Pioli to make some changes in the starting lineup. Even so, the Rossoneri will put up a good fight, enough for me to recommend you include the draw in your betting online ticket.
In the end, a draw works for Lazio as well, since no matter what happens with Juventus, it will remain in the top three.
The AC Milan islisted at -110 in our Vegas Serie A lines. This means that if you wager $100 on AC Milan, you have a chance to win $91. The Lazio is +310, offering a chance to win $310 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives AC Milana 52.38% chance to win, with Lazio at 24.39%.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.