Napoli began the season with eight straight victories but won only one of its last five games. That bad streak made them fall to fourth place. AC Milan took advantage of that and climbed up to second place. The Rossoneri are one point behind Inter Milan.
Despite recent results, Napoli is offering a not too bad +200 price in the sportsbook. They’ve only lost one game when playing on the road.
High Stakes for Napoli, AC Milan
Home Team Focused on Domestic Success
AC Milan last won the Serie A title in the 2010-11 season. Last season, they finished as the runners-up. They already got eliminated from the UEFA Champions League and didn’t even qualify for the Europa League, so winning the Scudetto is all they have left.
They recently drew 1-1 to Udinese thanks to a late goal from Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Yes, Ibrahimovic is still playing. Yes, he’s still awesome. Prior to that, they beat Salernitana and Genoa, both with a clean sheet.
When Gianluigi Donnarumma decided to sign with PSG, everybody thought AC Milan would deeply miss him. They did, for a little while, but then Mike Maignan appeared. He landed in the Serie A after playing eight years in France’s Ligue 1 and has done an amazing job.
AC Milan deserves to be the slight soccer betting favorite at +130. Not only because they sit in second place, but also because they’re 6-1-1 when playing at home.
Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao are out due to injury. They’ve missed Leao’s speed, but Giroud not so much. To be honest, I don’t why AC Milan spent money on him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad player, but they didn’t need him.
AC Milan’s predicted lineup: Mike Maignan; Alessandro Florenzi, Fikayo Tomori, Alessio Romagnoli, Theo Hernandez; Ismael Bennacer, Franck Kessie, Alexis Saelemaekers, Brahim Diaz, Rade Krunic; Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Napoli Believes in Defense
Italian soccer is well known for its defensive mindset, but Napoli is on another level. They’ve allowed only 13 goals in 17 games, best in the league. That’s two less than Inter Milan, the team sitting in first place.
The problem is that they haven’t won in three straight games. First, they drew 2-2 to Sassuolo. They then lost 3-2 in a crucial game against Atalanta and, most recently, they lost 1-0 to Empoli.
That same team managed to get a 3-2 victory over Leicester City in the Europa League. That’s how good they can be when truly focused. They also beat Juventus and drew to AS Roma. They just need to be more consistent.
Curiously enough, they’ve been a more profitable betting online pick when playing on the road. They own a 5-2-1 record, one defeat less than at home. In this case, your payout would be $300 for every $100 bet.
They’ve a couple of heavy weights on the injury list. I’m talking about Victor Osimhen and Kalidou Koulibaly. Osimhen is the team’s top scorer, while Koulibaly is a world class defender. Both will be deeply missed, but they can’t afford to lose.
Napoli’s predicted lineup: David Ospina; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Juan Jesus, Mario Rui; Piotr Zielinski, Diego Demme, Hirving Lozano, Adam Ounas, Dries Mertens; Elif Elmas.
AC Milan vs Napoli Head to Head
- Previous Matches: 152
- AC Milan Victories: 58 (214 goals)
- Napoli Victories: 45 (172 goals)
- Draws: 49
Curiously enough, each team beat the other on the road last season. First, AC Milan won 3-1 at Diego Maradona Stadium. Ibrahimovic was the Man of the Match after scoring twice, while Napoli finished with 10 players. Later, Napoli won 1-0 at San Siro with a goal from Matteo Politano.
With the way each team is playing, I would expect a close contest. The total went under in four of their last 10 meetings.
AC Milan vs Napoli Game Information
Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
Location: San Siro, Milan
AC Milan vs Napoli Live Stream: fuboTV
AC Milan vs Napoli Betting Lines
|AC Milan||Pk -140||+130||2½ -120o||1½ +110o/-140u|
|Napoli||Pk +120||+200||2½ Evu||1½ +150o/-180u|
AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction
To be honest, I’m not sure AC Milan is the better team. They’ve improved a lot, but their performance in the UCL Group Stage really disappointed me. Nevertheless, I do expect them to put up a fight due to playing at home.
I expect a close one, so close that our football prediction is a draw. Napoli can’t afford to lose, but without Osimhen and Koulibaly, it’s hard for me to imagine them winning.