With three wins from three matches, Ajax has asserted its dominance in Champions League Group C and has one foot in the knockout stage. Standing between it and the Last 16 is a Borussia Dortmund side that will be missing star striker Erling Haaland.
It’d be foolish to completely count out Dortmund at home, as the Champions League mainstays are just one point behind Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga through 10 matches.
Listed as a Pick’em according to the latest soccer odds, this is supposed to be a competitive game in which Dortmund has a slight implied edge.
- Game: Borussia Dortmund vs AFC Ajax
- Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
- Date/Time: Wednesday, 4 p.m. ET
|Team||Goal Line||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Dortmund||pk (-115)||+150||3½ (+115o)||1½ -125o/-105u|
|Ajax||pk (-105)||+160||3½ (-135u)||1½ -120o/-110u|
Borussia Dortmund vs Ajax Betting Preview
Head to Head
Ajax comprehensively defeated Borussia Dortmund 4-0 in Amsterdam a couple weeks back. Erling Haaland has missed three matches with hip flexor issues but started in the disappointing defeat.
Marco Reus’ own goal opened up the scoring in the 11th minute and Daley Blind added a second under 15 minutes later. In the second half, Brazilian Antony and the in-form Sebastien Haller found the net for Ajax to complete the blowout.
This will be the fourth meeting of the last decade. Before Ajax’s win in the reverse fixture, Dortmund won twice in the 2012 UCL Group Stage.
Dortmund’s Injury Crisis
“Erling [Haaland] will be out for a few weeks,” according to head coach Marco Rose. That spells bad news for a Borussia Dortmund side that was battered by Ajax two weeks ago with their superstar in the lineup.
Dortmund has been a solid pick for betting online without Haaland in the last three matches, albeit vs lesser competition. Hot on Bayern Munich’s heels, BVB has won four straight matches in the Bundesliga and defeated Koln 2-0 at the weekend.
Thorgan Hazard, starting as a false nine, scored a first half-goal and substitute striker Steffen Tigges added an insurance goal in the second half. It does, however, seem unclear how Dortmund will generate enough offense to go punch for punch with Ajax.
Donyell Malen is no stranger to playing against Ajax and the former PSV man is a strong candidate to start up front for an ailing Dortmund side.
Along with Haaland, midfielders Gio Reyna, Mahmoud Dahoud and Emre Can have all missed time recently. All three of Dortmund’s left backs have also been out, forcing Rose to trot out three at the back.
Ajax Firing on All Cylinders
Ajax didn’t take its foot off the gas pedal after its commanding 4-0 win over Borussia Dortmund. Instead, the Amsterdam outfit destroyed rivals PSV Eindhoven 5-0 in the Eredivisie just days later, avenging its 4-0 loss in the Johan Cruijff Shield final in August.
Often described as a feeder club, Ajax is shedding labels with its performances and looks like one of the teams to beat in the Champions League. Ajax has been one of the best UCL soccer picks and has been so dominant that it has only conceded three goals in 14 matches since the loss to PSV in August.
Ajax defeated Besiktas 2-0 and Sporting 5-1 in its other continental matches. Haller has been a machine up top and has scored six goals, which leads the Champions League.
The former West Ham man scored four goals in the opener vs Sporting and has found the net in all three UCL matches. Another former Premier League player, Dusan Tadic, has also been excellent.
Tadic is a creative midfielder who already has nine assists in 11 Eredivisie matches and has also added five goals. With a roster full of young talent, established internationals and a wanted coach in Erik Ten Hag, Ajax has what it takes to make a deep run.
Dortmund is known as a tough place to play but Ajax shouldn’t be fazed. Borussia Dortmund has scored just three goals in three Champions League matches and is missing two of its most dynamic players in Haaland and Reyna.
Without them, I don’t think Dortmund will be able to generate enough chances to beat an Ajax team with a stellar defensive record. Ajax is listed at even odds in the sportsbook as a Pick’em and it’s a bet worth taking in this one.