Mexico and the U,S. will renew their storied rivalry in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the US or Mexico has won 14 of the 15 total Gold Cups.
Mexico will be looking to win its second consecutive Gold Cup and a record ninth. In the 2019 final at Soldier Field, Mexico defeated the U.S, 1-0 to secure its place as CONCACAF’s best team. The US has won six Gold Cups and last won in 2017 vs Jamaica.
Mexico defeated Canada 2-1, thanks to a late winner from Hector Herrera, to set up a meeting with the U.S.. The USMNT also needed a late Gyasi Zardes winner to get past Qatar in the semifinal.
The soccer betting odds for the match are:
USA: +250 to win in 90 minutes, +110 to win
Mexico: +130, -140
Game: USA vs Mexico
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Time: Aug 1, 8:30 p.m. ET
Head to Head
All-time, Mexico has dominated, with a record of 38-21-14. However, the U.S. won the most recent meeting, which was also a final. Christian Pulisic’s extra-time winner and Ethan Horvath’s heroic penalty save lifted the USA over Mexico in the inaugural CONCACAF Nations League, just last month.
Recent meetings between these two have been even. Both have won 4 of the last 10, with two draws. Mexico beat the U.S. in the 2019 Gold Cup final and matched up with the U.S. in six previous Gold Cup finals. Mexico has dominated Gold Cup finals vs the U.S., with a 5-1 record.
Experimental US Side Reaches Finals
Bettors should know that this U.S. roster is a completely different side from the one that defeated Mexico last month. None of the starters from the Nations League Final are on the Gold Cup roster.
Coach Gregg Berhalter decided to give regular USMNT players based in Europe, like Pulisic, Weston McKennie, John Brooks, and Gio Reyna a rest after a condensed season. That has meant more opportunity for players who might not have otherwise gotten a look.
Young forward Matthew Hoppe scored the first American hat trick in the Bundesliga last season, with Schalke 04. He also scored the winner vs Jamaica in the quarterfinal.
New England Revolution keeper Matt Turner has been a revelation. He has made a tournament-best 17 saves and hasn’t allowed a single goal from the run of play. Center back Miles Robinson has been consistent and has proved he merits consideration for future USMNT call-ups.
Four of the USA’s five wins have been by a 1-0 scoreline, including the semifinal win vs Qatar. Qatar was awarded a second-half penalty and Hasan Al-Haydos botched the Panenka chip attempt.
Qatar often had the better chances but its finishing completely let it down in the match. Two substitutes were involved in the decisive goal for the U.S. In the 86th minute, Nicholas Gioacchini set up Zardes on a silver platter and Zardes made no mistake of it. Five matches, five wins so far for the U.S.
Mexico is Where it Expected to Be
El Tri started off its campaign with a disappointing 0-0 draw vs Trinidad and Tobago but has been much better since. Mexico won its following two group stage games to clinch first in Group A.
Mexico demolished rivals Honduras in the quarterfinal, with three first half goals. Orbelin Pineda opened up the scoring in the semifinal vs Canada, converting a late first-half penalty. Canada’s Tajon Buchanan then scored an impressive individual goal to level the scoreline early in the second half.
Mexico was awarded another penalty soon after, but Canada’s Maxime Crepeau saved Carlos Salcedo’s effort. The match wasn’t decided until the 98th minute, as Herrera sent Mexico through to a second consecutive Gold Cup final.
While Mexico has most of its roster from the Nations League Final intact, there are some notable omissions.
Longtime national team goalie Guillermo Ochoa is at the Olympics instead, along with Uriel Antuna and Diego Lainez. Hirving “Chucky” Lozano was ruled out of the rest of the Gold Cup following a head injury he suffered vs Trinidad.
Mexico still has more than enough talent to take home another title. Striker Rogelio Funes Mori and Pineda have both scored three goals to lead El Tri.
Both teams have been excellent defensively. Buchanan’s goal for Canada was the first goal Mexico conceded in the tournament. Meanwhile, the only goal the U.S. has given up was a penalty to Martinique in the Group Stage, while already 4-0 up.
Turner has been excellent and has saved each and every shot on target he’s faced in the tournament. However, the US hasn’t played a team even close to Mexico’s level of quality yet.
The USA has also struggled to score, even in games it has been favored to win by and has often been on the back foot. Mexico shut out the USA in the Gold Cup final two years ago and that’s certainly a possibility again as Alfredo Talavera has been excellent in goal. At +175 for the USA to fail to score, the odds represent a good value.