Inter Milan welcomes Bologna to the San Siro on Saturday afternoon after suffering a heartbreaking last-minute loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League. Both teams are undefeated through three Serie A matches and sit level on seven points each.
The soccer odds list Inter as a heavy -250 home favorite even though Bologna has won two of the last three meetings in Milan.
Game: Inter Milan vs Bologna FC
Location: Stadio San Siro, Milan, Italy
Date/Time: Saturday, Noon ET
Head to Head
Inter took both meetings last season, winning 3-1 at the San Siro and 1-0 at Bologna. Interestingly, all of Inter’s four goals vs Bologna last season were scored by players who departed in the summer.
Despite the all-time series being lopsided in favor of Inter, Bologna has won two of the last five meetings between the two clubs, both in Milan.
Inter’s Midweek Heartbreak
Real Madrid came to Milan for a highly anticipated Champions League opener. With the score level at 0-0 after 89 minutes, Rodrygo’s left-footed side volley propelled Real to a last-minute victory vs Milan.
It was a disappointing result for Inter, which had kept Madrid at bay for the vast majority of the game. In Inter’s most recent Serie A match, the Nerazzurri allowed Sampdoria to come back twice in a 2-2 draw.
Striker Lautaro Martinez scored his second goal of the season while fullback Federico Dimarco scored his first goal for Inter after making the switch from Hellas Verona over the summer.
After starting the season with two comfortable wins and as one of Serie A’s best soccer picks, Inter is at risk of going a third consecutive game in all competitions without a win. Losing Achraf Hakimi and Romelu Lukaku was always going to make the start of this season a challenge for Inter and it’ll be interesting to see how the Nerazzurri respond.
Bologna’s Uneven Start
Despite scoring just one goal in its last two matches, Bologna has managed to be one of the last six Serie A teams without a defeat.
The season started out rather inauspiciously, as Bologna lost 5-4 to Serie B Ternana in the first round of the Coppa Italia. Then, Bologna picked up two red cards in the 3-2 Serie A opening win vs newly promoted Salernitana.
I’m not sure exactly what was said by manager Siniša Mihajlović following a start in which Bologna conceded seven goals in two games, but Bologna now appears to be a motivated team. In its last two matches, Bologna has kept two clean sheets, including vs an attack-minded Atalanta on the road and been a good pick for betting online.
Bologna lost talented young Japanese defender Takehiro Tomiyasu to Arsenal just before the transfer deadline but has looked solid defensively as of late. The club’s leading goal scorer through three games is a defender. Wingback Lorenzo De Silvestri has two of Bologna’s four Serie A goals.
Temperamental Austrian forward Marko Arnautovic was brought in over the summer to provide offense following captain Rodrigo Palacio’s departure. Arnautovic scored in his first two matches with Bologna, in the Coppa Italia and vs Salernitana, but has been quiet since. Expect him to play a huge role as the heavy underdog tries to knock off Inter.
Bologna won just three away matches last season but did pick up six draws on the road. At +700 in the sportsbook, I think Bologna is an excellent value bet with just a 13.8 percent implied probability to win the match.
Inter is still an incredibly talented team without Lukaku and Hakimi but I do think it’ll take some time for Simone Inzaghi to work out what his best lineup is. It will take time for this new iteration of Inter to jell and I don’t see them beating Bologna by more than a goal here.
Take Bologna to keep this match a competitive one and cover the 1½-goal spread.