You’d struggle to find Bundesliga sides with more similar crests than Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen, with the two sides sporting green-and-white kits with a massive W as their logo.
As far as their form goes, however, they have been similarly inconsistent:
Werder Bremen began their season with defeats to Bayern and Freiburg before thrashing bottom dwellers Mainz, losing to newly promoted Heidenheim, and pulling off a comeback 2-1 win against Cologne, who occupy the relegation zone.
The odds have not been in Werder Bremen’s favor as of late, with the River Islanders opening October with a 4-2 loss to Darmstadt and a 3-2 loss to Hoffenheim. They were undone by a late goal from Julian Brandt as Borussia Dortmund prevailed 1-0 to continue their unbeaten run, whilst they picked up a 2-0 victory against Union Berlin and condemned the visitors to a 10th straight loss.
Werder Bremen sit 12th in the table, three above Union Berlin in the relegation playoff spot, and three behind Wolfsburg who occupy ninth place.
Wolfsburg’s first nine matches have featured four wins and five draws whilst Werder Bremen have picked up three wins and six losses.
The easy money is on another win or a loss for Wolfsburg, and admittedly, the betting lines reflect this at -450; nevertheless, if you want to get your weekend parlay off to a successful start, picking Double Chance: Wolfsburg – Werder Bremen is pretty much a no-brainer here.
However, the bolder Bundesliga pick is to go with a Wolfsburg win. Whilst Wolfsburg are coming off a poor run of form that has seen them lose 3-1 to Stuttgart, 2-1 to Leverkusen and 3-2 to Augsburg, they have been impressive at home this season.
They have dropped pointsonce at home – defeat to league leaders Leverkusen, who remain the only undefeated team in Europe alongside Nice – and they continued their stellar form at the Volkswagen Arena on Tuesday.
Vaclav Cerny opened the scoring for the hosts within 14 minutes, Yussuf Poulsen was sent off for the visitors after 56, and Leipzig, winners of the last two DFB-Pokals, exited the competition in the second round. Wolfsburg have moved onto the Round of 16, and with the likes of Bayern and Leipzig out, they’ll be liking their chances.
Neither Wolfsburg nor Werder are juggling European football, with Niko Kovac’s side placing 8th and missing out by a point, whilst Werder Bremen narrowly escaped the drop with a 13th-place finish.
Whilst Wolfsburg have conceded 14 goals, they have scored 13 in contrast to Werder Bremen, who have scored 14 and conceded 18.
There are few teams who are more reliant on one player for goals than Wolfsburg, with Danish striker Jonas Wind scoring 8 goals and 1 assist, putting him level with Loís Openda and Leroy Sané in the league’s scoring charts, four behind Harry Kane and six behind Serhou Guirassy, and averaging 1.8 shots on target per game.
He has missed six big chances this season, second only to Victor Boniface in the league, and looks set to play a pivotal role in attack for Wolfsburg. Having been rested for the cup match alongside fellow starters Joachim Maehle and Max Arnold, I’m expecting him to be fit and fresh and lead Wolfsburg to yet another win at home.
Sporting To Continue Unbeaten Start Under Amorim
One unbeaten team remains in Portugal’s top-flight: Sporting CP. Ruben Amorim’s side have won eight of nine and sit three points above Benfica and three above Porto, who lost 1-0 to Estoril on Friday.
They can move six above Porto and potentially six above Benfica, who’ll be traveling to Chaves, if they can pick up a win against Estrela da Amadora.
The Lions are clicking on all cylinders after a disappointing campaign that would see them finish trophyless and place fourth in the league, and whilst they have been up-and-down in the Europa League with a win, a draw and a loss so far, they have been flawless domestically.
Apart from their last two fixtures in the Europa League, which saw them lose 2-1 to Atalanta before drawing 1-1 at Raków Częstochowa despite playing with 10 men from the eighth minute onwards, Sporting have scored at least two goal in all but two matches. Those were a 1-0 win against Famalicão on August 27 and a 1-1 draw to Braga on September 3. They are a surefire addition to your Primeira Liga bets with a home match on the horizon against Estrela.
In fact, out of all of their domestic matches, they have fallen behind once: conceding an early penalty to lower-tier Olivais e Moscavide before storming back to a 3-1 win.
The following matches would see Sporting draw to Raków and beat Boavista 2-0 via goals from Geny Catamo and Pedro Gonçalves, with Viktor Gyökeres atoning for his early sending-off in Poland and grabbing a hat-trick against Primeira side Farense in a 4-2 victory in the Taça de Portugal.
It’s no surprise that the Vegas sportsbooks have Sporting down as the heavy favorites as they face off against an Estrela side that is playing top-flight football for the first time in 14 years.
Whilst Estrela have strung together an impressive run of form and sit ninth in the table, they have conceded two goals to Chaves and Benfica this season and also fell to a 4-2 loss to Braga, and I doubt they’ll be able to subdue a Sporting side that looks revolutionized in the final third following the arrival of Gyokeres from Coventry City this summer.
Prediction: Sporting to score over 2.5 goals (-115)
Questions of the Day
What's the most important factor to know before setting a win-draw soccer bet?
Evaluating each team’s recent form as well as checking for any major absences is crucial to making a successful win-draw soccer bet.