Top-Five Sides in Serie A Meet in Derby
Lazio and Roma never need an added reason to win the Derby della Capitale, but this match will have some extra excitement. Both clubs are in excellent positions in the Serie A standings right now, separated by two points. Games like this can have very tight soccer odds, due to anything being possible in a derby match between two top-five sides.
In Lazio’s last Serie A game, they struggled to a 0-0 draw against Bologna, with Ciro Immobile again missing time. Roma was shocked in their previous Serie A game, losing 4-3 to Sassuolo at home. However, the game before and after was important to Roma, advancing to the Europa League quarterfinals.
Lazio: Offensive Shortcomings
The Serie A title was seen to be wide open this season, and soccer betting saw Lazio as a team that would be in the mix. They are still technically in a good position, sitting in third, but Napoli has amassed such a large lead (18 points over the second place) that it does not seem like anyone is catching up. However, Lazio’s last win was against Napoli, beating them 1-0 on the road despite being outplayed.
Compared to last season, Lazio’s attack has taken a step back, which is a big part of why they haven’t been more active in competing for a title. Last season, they had the second-best attack, averaging two goals per game. This season, they are sixth at 1.6 per game.
Sarri: “Su @ciroimmobile non ho novità, @10_luisalberto l’ho visto bene in allenamento, Milinkovic è uno di quelli che finora ha giocato di più”#AZLazio 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/fmP4TclDC6
— S.S.Lazio (@OfficialSSLazio) March 15, 2023
Much of that is due to the health of Immobile, who once again picked up an injury and is likely out till April. Injuries have been a problem for last season’s Golden Boot winner. After scoring 27 goals last season, he has nine in 20 games in 2022-23. Sportsbook saw him possibly winning the Golden Boot again, but that seems unlikely now.
No one else has been able to step into Immobile’s production, causing the team to struggle.
Roma Not Living Up To The Stats
Roma has been tough to figure out. The team has played very well, pushing for European play next season while remaining competitive in the Europa League. They are just a point outside of fourth in Serie A and possible Champions League qualification, which seems like a real chance of happening.
In attack, Roma is averaging 1.3 goals per game, sixth best in the league. Paulo Dybala leads the attacking front with nine and Tammy Abraham adds six. The duo has been great up front, creating many of Roma’s scoring chances.
On the other hand, the team’s attack should be even better. Roma is third in expected goals (40.9) and has missed the biggest chances (47) in Serie A. Furthermore, their third-highest goal scorer is a center-back. Nearly all the attacking protection comes from Dybala and Abraham, who are first and third in assists.
A similar thing can be said about Roma’s defense. While averaging an allowed goal per game isn’t bad, fourth-best in the league, they have the second-lowest expected goals conceded.
Lazio vs Roma Head-to-Head
Lazio won the first meeting between these rivals 1-0 on Nov. 6, with Felipe Anderson scoring the only goal. Last season, the teams split the games, Lazio winning 3-2 and Roma 3-0.
Lazio vs Roma Match Information
- Match: Lazio (14-7-5) vs Roma (14-5-7)
- Date/Time: Sunday, March 19, 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
- Lazio vs RomaLive stream: fubo.tv
Lazio vs Roma Betting Lines
Lazio vs Roma Picks and Prediction
The soccer lines between Lazio and Roma are incredibly close. They match up well and it’s a pick’em, with the game being a derby matchup in which anything can happen.
Despite that, often sports betting can come down to having better players. Lazio is missing Immobile, and Roma will have Dybala and Abraham healthy, which could lean things in their favor. Roma has the advantage just by having their key players available.
Roma is listed at +175 in our Vegas soccer odds. This means that if you wager $100 on Roma, you have a chance to win $175. Lazio is +180, offering a chance to win $180 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Roma a 36.36% chance to win, with Lazio at 35.71%.