Leverkusen Undervalued in Clash vs Dortmund

Game: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund
Location: BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany
Date/Time: Sept. 11, 9:30 a.m.. ET

Head to Head

These two clubs split the season series last year. Bayer won 2-1 at the BayArena and Dortmund won 3-1 at home. Dortmund is 6-3-1 vs Bayer in their last 10 Bundesliga meetings but haven’t won at Leverkusen since 2018.

Leverkusen’s Surprise Start

Bayer has started off the season well and sits in second place through three games. Since a 1-1 draw to open up the season at Union Berlin, Leverkusen has scored four goals in consecutive games and picked up two wins. Leverkusen has been one of the best soccer picks to start the season.

Patrik Schick, who finished level with Cristiano Ronaldo with five goals at Euro 2020, has seen his good form carry over to his club. The 25-year old Czech International has two goals through three games. He’s tied for the team lead with Moussa Diaby, who just made his debut for the French National team.

Wonderkid midfielder Florian Wirtz, who just turned 18 a few months ago, has managed a goal and two assists and provided a creative presence. With a +7 goal difference through three games, Bayer has the highest mark in the league.

Last season, Leverkusen finished a respectable sixth in the Bundesliga and lost just four matches at home. With the form Leverkusen is in, don’t be surprised if the North Rhine-Westphalia club makes a run for a Champions League place.

Dortmund Could be Missing Key Players

Three teams have scored nine goals in the Bundesliga through matches. Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund have scored with ease and all have formidable attacking players. Dortmund has gone 2-1 through three matches but suffered a disappointing loss to SC Freiburg.

Dortmund’s Haaland is incredibly difficult to contain. The 21-year old just scored his second international hat trick in just 15 appearances with the Norwegian national team. He has scored 43 goals in 46 career Bundesliga matches and is a leading contender to win the Golden Boot.

Young American midfielder Gio Reyna has added two goals this season but injured his hamstring on international duty with the USMNT. His status is worth monitoring and his absence would be a big blow for BVB.

Midfielder Thomas Delaney was sold to Sevilla before the transfer deadline and attacking midfielder Thorgan Hazard is nursing an injury and was left out of the Belgium squad for the recent internationals. This might not be a full strength Dortmund squad, given the injuries, but it’s still a dangerous one and a good pick for betting online.

Prediction

Three or more goals have been scored in seven straight Bundesliga games between Dortmund and Leverkusen. Dortmund has scored 2.7 goals per game in that span but only managed one goal at the BayerArena last season.

New Dortmund keeper Gregor Kobel is yet to keep a clean sheet through three matches. The BVB defense has been leaky, allowing six goals. So, the 3½ goal line in the sportsbook seems to be fair given the history between these two teams and recent form.

Bettors are confident about Bayer Leverkusen’s chances to draw or win the game, as the club has -130 odds to cover the +½ goal spread. Leverkusen beat Dortmund at home last season and is given just an implied 30.7 percent chance of repeating that feat this season.

Without any other great-looking bets on the slate for this game, I like the value of the Bayer +225 moneyline, especially with Dortmund’s injury situation.

Pick: Bayer Leverkusen (+225)