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Mexico Slightly Favored to Win in Canada

Road to World Cup '22 Qatar

Seven games into the CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers and there’s only one undefeated team left, Mex…wait! No, it’s Canada. Believe it or not, Canada is on its way to returning to a WC for the first time since 1986. Beating Mexico would be another huge statement towards that goal.

Mexico won’t be easy prey, though, they’ll be eager to return to the winning column and reclaim first place. Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and soccer lines for Argentina vs Brazil. We’ve plenty of predictions for you to consider!

Edson Alvarez and Jesus Gallardo vie for possession Canada vs Mexico Picks

Competition: Qatar 2022 World Cup Qualifiers

Location: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, Canada

Time: Tuesday, Nov. 16, 9:05 p.m. ET

TV: beIN Sports

Live Stream: fuboTV

World Cup Qualifiers CONCACAF Betting Lines

Team Handicap Moneyline Over/Under Team Total
Canada Pk Ev +185 2½ +120o ½ +200o/-260u
Mexico Pk -130 +145 2½ -150u 1½ +165o/-210u
Draw +235

Head to Head

  • Previous Matches: 34
  • Canada Victories: 5 (22 goals)
  • Mexico Victories: 21 (73 goals)
  • Draws: 8


The first leg ended with a draw, just like we predicted. Canada went to the mythical Estadio Azteca and played without any complex. Mexico opened the can 21 minutes into the game, but Canada tied it before the end of the first half.

They also met in the 2021 Gold Cup in July. Mexico won 2-1, but Canada deserved better luck. If there’s something you can expect from these two, it’s goals. Both scored in three of their last five encounters, the total went over 2½ goals in two of those games.

The last time they met in Canada, Mexico won 3-0. I’m not saying Mexico can’t win again, but things have changed drastically.

Unbeaten Doesn’t Mean First Place

Despite being the only unbeaten team left, Canada sits in third place with 13 points, one less than USA and Mexico. They own a 3-4-0 record, 11 goals for and only four against. No other team has scored more goals than them.

Most recently, they beat Costa Rica 1-0 thanks to a goal from Jonathan David. Including the previous rounds, Lille’s striker has scored seven goals on the road to Qatar 2022. He and Cyle Larin (nine goals) are the main reason for Canada to be such a tempting betting online underdog.

Let’s not forget Alphonso Davies. The Bayern Munich’s star drove Costa Rica’s defense crazy. When it comes to playing with the national team, Davis has more attacking responsibilities. His ball control while running is second to none.

Since the beginning of the qualifiers’ last round, Canada is 3-1-0 when playing at home. They scored in all games and finished with a clean sheet in two of them. Head coach John Herdman has done a great job keeping the team’s feet on the ground.

“We know we have a tough game coming on Tuesday against Mexico and ultimately, we’re one point off the lead and it’s time to move on and focus on the next match,” said Herdman after the game against Costa Rica.

There are no major injuries to report here. Canada’s roster depth has been crucial to their success.

Revenge of the Tri

Mexico is hurt. Friday, they lost 2-0 to USA and fell to second place. They own a 4-2-1 record, 10 goals for and five against. Prior to the game against USA, I wrote that Mexico was unbeaten but had suffered a lot.

With Gerardo Martino leading the way and such a talented roster, they shouldn’t be suffering. Mexico’s attacking unit includes Hirving Lozano, Raul Jimenez, Jesus Corona, and Rogelio Funes Mori. We’re talking about certified scorers in some of the top European leagues.

Defensively, Guillermo Ochoa is considered one of the best goalkeepers in the region. That and a cohesive midfield makes them a very well-balanced team.

Mexico has been a productive soccer pick when playing on the road. Yes, they lost to USA, but prior to that they beat Costa Rica and El Salvador. They also managed to get a draw in Panama. They scored in all games but one and finished with a clean sheet twice.

Some key players such as Andres Guardado, Orbelin Pineda, Henry Martin and Hector Moreno didn’t play against USA. That means they’ll be at 100% and eager to prove they belong into the starting lineup. It also means that Mexico has talent to spare in all lines.

Fortunately for us, there are no major injuries to report here either. We are set to enjoy an epic battle between two of CONCACAF finest.

Final Analysis, Predictions

I’m really liking Canada’s style and approach to the game. They play without fear and their confidence is up to the roof. They want to secure a spot in Qatar ASAP, that’s why I have no doubt they’ll go all-in. The thing is that it’s not common for Mexico to lose two games in a row. They’ll go all-in as well to avoid falling to third place, that would be a disgrace for them.

Don’t forget to check the props our sportsbook is offering for this and other games to increase your winning chances. Our score prediction is offering a +1400 price, while both teams to score in the match is -115, take it.

Score Prediction: Canada 2, Mexico 2

Pick: Drawn and Both to Score – Yes at +350

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