Great entertainment is expected in the south of Italy on Tuesday. Serie A leader Napoli and reigning champ AC Milan are ready to run it again to determine the UEFA Champions League semifinalist. You can live bet on the UCL action by using our sportsbook.
Napoli: Osimhen Is Back
Luciano Spalletti’s side created the better chances in Milan and will be confident of turning the tie around at home as it bids for a dream double this season. Napoli has been champion-in-waiting for months after streaking clear at the top of Serie A but is wobbling a little as it closes in on the finishing line.
It’s now just one win in four games after a stalemate with Verona at the weekend, but Spalletti had the luxury of resting key men for the clash against AC Milan. Napoli entered the quarter-finals as the third favorite to lift the UCL trophy and had rightfully earned its flowers, winning five of its six group-stage games and easing past Eintracht Frankfurt in the last 16.
The only positive note for Spalletti’s men came when talismanic striker Victor Osimhen returned from injury as a second-half substitute against Verona to much delight from the expectant home fans. Reaching the Champions League semi-finals would break new ground for one of Calcio’s most famed clubs, and we expect it to give everything on Tuesday, that’s why we will include it in our Champions League picks and parlays.
After Kim Min-jae got red-carded in the closing stages at San Siro, Napoli’s defensive rock joins Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa on the sidelines due to suspension. But the return of top scorer Victor Osimhen up front will certainly compensate. Either Eljif Elmas or Tanguy Ndombele will complete the hosts’ midfield trio.
AC Milan: Rock Solid
AC Milan is the second most successful side in Champions League history, but it hasn’t won the competition since 2007. That was also the last time it got past the quarter-finals, but fans may be confident of the club’s semi-final berth.
Ismael Bennacer scored the only goal of the first leg at San Siro, capping what has been a bizarre run for AC Milan. Stefano Pioli’s troops have not had the best of times since the start of March, securing just two wins from their eight games across all competitions, both against Napoli.
A place in next season’s Champions League is far from guaranteed, with Pioli’s side sitting just two points ahead of city rivals Inter Milan in fourth place. AC Milan needs a morale boost heading down the home stretch, but if you’re betting online, you shouldn’t trust it to beat Napoli three times in a row.
AC Milan made 10 changes to its team on Saturday. Only Mike Maignan was retained and Stefano Pioli’s second string was given an opportunity to impress. Reverting to full strength, the visitors should be unchanged from last week’s win on home soil, with Olivier Giroud leading the attacking line.
Napoli vs AC Milan Head-to-Head
Napoli has been eliminated from its last 10 European knockout ties after losing the first leg. Its last second-leg turnaround came a year before its last Italian title, in a 1988-89 UEFA Cup quarter-final against Juventus.
Napoli is unbeaten in its last 12 home matches in Europe’s top club competition, winning each of its four fixtures at this venue and scoring at least three times on each occasion.
AC Milan has scored eight goals in its past six matches across all competitions, with six of those coming in the first half. Napoli is the only side AC Milan has beaten in its past eight matches. The visitors will be hoping to win three-straight games against Napoli for the first time since 1973, when they won four in a row in Serie A and Coppa Italia.
Napoli vs AC Milan Match Information
- Match: Napoli (7-0-2) vs AC Milan (5-2-2)
- Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
- Day/Time: Tuesday, April 18, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Napoli vs AC Milan Live stream: fubo.tv
Napoli vs AC Milan Betting Lines
Napoli vs AC Milan Picks & Prediction
The hosts enter this clash as favorites, priced at -135 on the three-way moneyline according to the latest Champions League odds, while the goal line is set at 2½
Victor Osimhen was a big miss for Napoli in the first leg, but he returned from injury off the bench against Verona at the weekend. AC Milan will stand defensively, aiming to keep things quiet at the back and save the advantage, but if Napoli scores in the first half, we will definitely have a high-scoring affair. We’re expecting plenty of drama, action, and quality throughout a match that will see Napoli qualify for its first-ever Champions League semifinal.
The Napoli are listed at -135 in our Vegas Soccer lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Napoli, you have a chance to win $74. The AC Milan are +385, offering a chance to win $385 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Napoli a 57.45% chance to win, with AC Milan at 20.62%