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Porto, AC Milan Must Win

Both Sides Winless in UEFA Champions League Group Stage

Porto and AC Milan have won the UEFA Champions League before, but this season they’re not among the favorites. Falling into the Group of Death didn’t help their case but they’re still fighting.

Worst-case scenario, next year one of them will be playing in the UEFA Europa League Round of 32. The winner of this game will increase their chances to remain in a continental competition considerably. That’s why neither can’t afford to lose.

FC Porto AC Milan

Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and soccer lines for Porto vs AC Milan. We’ve plenty of predictions for you to consider.

Game: FC Porto vs AC Milan

Location: Estadio Do Dragao, Oporto

Time: Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET

TV: beIN Sports

Live Stream: fuboTV

UEFA Champions League Betting Lines

Team Handicap Moneyline Over/Under Team Total
FC Porto Pk -130 +145 2½ -115o 1½ +130o/-160u
AC Milan Pk +110 +200 2½ -105u 1½ +160o/-200u
Draw +240

Head to Head

  • Previous Matches: 9
  • FC Porto Victories: 2 (5 goals)
  • AC Milan Victories: 4 (9 goals)
  • Draws: 3


FC Porto, AC Milan and the UCL are no strangers. Eight of their previous nine meetings have been in the continental tournament Group Stage. However, the last time they met was in the UEFA Super Cup. AC Milan beat Porto to win the 2003 edition.

The total went over 2½ goals in only two of their previous nine meetings. If you’re wondering why the over is offering a -110 price, it’s because both are in a must-win situation. Also, Porto scored seven goals in its last two games while Milan scored six.

Shy Dragon

FC Porto qualified to the UCL Round of 16 in each of the last four seasons. They’ve never been afraid to face the powerhouses, but it seems like scores and odds have abandoned them. At least internationally.

They started the Group Stage with a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid. Not bad considering it was on the road, but they finished with only one shot on target. Also, they lost center back Chancel Mbemba due to a red card. Most recently, they were crushed by Liverpool (5-1) at home.

Not having Mbemba, who’ll also miss this game, was a huge factor. However, they still have a roster talented enough to compete or at least not to lose by four goals. Losing against AC Milan would send them to last place with an increased negative goal differential.

“It’s an all-or-nothing match for us and we will approach it with the utmost seriousness. Whoever plays, what matters is to win,” said midfielder Sergio Oliveira in an interview.

After losing to Liverpool, they won their last two games with a 7-1 aggregate. They didn’t beat any powerhouse but winning comfortably allowed them to regain some much-needed confidence.

Including the Primeira Liga, Portugal’s first division, their home record isn’t bad (4-0-1). Again, that isn’t the same as facing Liverpool or AC Milan.

In Zlatan They Trust

AC Milan opened at +160, but they’re offering a +200 price. Besides playing on the road, they recently became a hospital unit. Mike Maignan, Theo Hernandez, Alessandro Florenzi, Brahim Diaz and Ante Rebic are out due to injury. As if that wasn’t enough, Franck Kessie is out due to suspension.

Not all is bad news, though. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is back after missing several games due to injury. The Swedish star played some minutes in last weekend’s 3-2 victory over Hellas Verona and is ready to command the attack. Having him back is huge, especially when it comes to the team’s confidence.

Overall, they own a 3-1-1 record when playing on the road. Their only loss was against Liverpool (3-2), but they put up a good fight at Anfield. They also are 4-0-1 against the spread and 2-2-1 over/under when playing away from San Siro.

Despite all the absences, AC Milan remain a good option to include in your soccer picks. Ibrahimovic, Rafael Leao, Sandro Tonali, Samu Castillejo and Rade Krunic all came off the bench last weekend. That means they’ll be more than rested to face Porto.

They waited seven years to return to the big leagues and have no other option than to go all-in.

Final Analysis, Predictions

Expect a back-and-forth battle with plenty of goals. There have been three or more goals scored in total in Porto’s last four home games. The same happened in AC Milan’s last four games. Playing at home, Porto must take the reins right from the start and unleash the real dragon. However, like I mentioned before, Milan won’t be easy prey.

Don’t forget to check the props our sportsbook is offering for this and other games to increase your winning chances. Our score prediction is offering a +1100 price. I expect both to score in the first half, go with 21-30 minutes for the first goal at +500.

Score Prediction: Porto 2, AC Milan 2

Pick: FC Porto Over 1½ goals (+130)

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