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Toluca vs Guadalajara Predictions, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks

Opposite Directions

The Liga MX season is not incredibly long, but it still allows teams to flow throughout the competition. It only takes one streak of good or poor play to have a team’s position on the table drastically change.

That seems to be what is happening with Toluca and Guadalajara. A few weeks ago, Toluca looked like a contender while Guadalajara was winless near the bottom of the table. Now they are both sitting in the middle of the playoff standings and about to play one another.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Predictions, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks
Ulises RUIZ / AFP

Let’s check the latest Liga MX picks, stats, injury reports and Liga MX odds for Toluca vs Guadalajara. We’ve plenty of Liga MX predictions for you to consider.

Toluca Defense Struggling

Toluca got off to a hot start in the early part of the season, only losing once in their first 10 games, with six victories. Since then, they have lost their last two games by an aggregate of 5-1, including a shutout.

A massive reason for the success at the beginning was because of the team’s strong attack. It was headlined by Leonardo Fernandez, who has four goals and five assists, tied for second in the most goals+assists in Liga MX.

Statistically, the attack performed as well as some of the best teams, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Of the team’s four wins, they scored three goals and have only been held goalless twice.

The defense has been an evident weakness, as they have struggled to keep clean sheets with just one, tied for the fewest in Liga MX. After allowing four goals in their previous match, the defense seems to be crumbling headed into their match with Guadalajara.

Guadalajara on the Rise

Guadalajara has nearly completely turned their season around in the last three games. They were held winless in the first eight games but only lost twice. The defense was holding the team together during this time, allowing more than one goal just twice.

The last three games have featured a remarkable burst of offense, with Guadalajara winning them all by an aggregate 8-1 scoreline, including one own goal by a keeper. This sudden turn of form has moved them into seventh place. They are still six points behind Toluca, making it fitting they will play each other next.

Two of the wins came against teams below them on the table, except for a surprise against Monterrey, the leader in points right now. Guadalajara held on all game until scoring in the 80th minute to complete the massive upset.

That is how the entire season has gone. Guadalajara has the second most draws in the league with six and averages the second-fewest goals per game at 0.7. The team was waiting for the attack to contribute and it finally has.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head

The two sides have split the last 29 games down the middle since 2010. They have both won eight games, leaving 13 draws.

Their last meeting was a 1-1 draw, but the previous match was a 2-0 win for Guadalajara. The last time Toluca won was a 1-0 victory in October 2020. The last time a team won back-to-back matches was Guadalajara in 2019.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Game Information

  • Game: Toluca (6-3-3) vs Guadalajara (3-6-2)
  • Location: Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca de Lerdo
  • Day/Time: Sunday, Sept. 4, 6 p.m. ET
  • Toluca vs Guadalajara Live Stream:

Toluca vs Guadalajara Betting Lines

Team Handicap Moneyline Total Team Total
Toluca pk -120 +165 2½ Evo 1½ +145o

1½ -175u

Guadalajara pk -110 +185 2½ -130u 1½ +180o

1½ -230u

Draw +210

Toluca vs Guadalajara Prediction

Despite Toluca being the better team this season, recent form matters and Guadalajara has been one of the hottest teams in Liga MX. They have also played through their defense, allowing them to be close in every game. On the other hand, Toluca’s defense has been weak and they haven’t kept a clean sheet in seven games, while Guadalajara’s attack is finally starting to find a rhythm.

Even with Guadalajara as the away team, they have not struggled in their four games, having a goal differential of three.

Score Prediction: Guadalajara 1, Toluca 0

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