If the La Liga season ended today, Villarreal would qualify for the UEFA Conference League. Luckily for the Yellow Submarine, that’s not the case. Defeating Barcelona could boost them up to fifth place, allowing them to keep their Champions League hopes alive. But Los Azulgranas are on fire, coming in as the betting online favorites after not losing any of their last 11 matches.
Villarreal: Determined to Bounce Back
Last Saturday, Villarreal was heavily favored to defeat Elche, the team sitting in last place. Well, the Yellow Submarine choked and lost 3-1. Pere Milla scored a hat-trick and was named Man of the Match. He scored the opener only three minutes into the game.
Prior to that, they played host to Rayo Vallecano and lost 1-0 despite winning possession with 62% and finishing with 12 shots in total, one more than the visitors. Sergio Camello scored the winning goal in the second half.
Losing to Rayo Vallecano doesn’t change the fact that the Yellow Submarine have been considerably better when playing at home. They own a 6-1-2 record at El Madrigal, while they’re 3-3-5 when playing on the road.
Defensively, Villarreal has allowed more than one goal only once when playing at home. That and the +330 price they’re offering in the sportsbook to win straight up make it a good betting option for this weekend.
Gerard Moreno, who’s the team’s top scorer with five goals, missed several games due to injury but returned better than ever. He scored in two of Villarreal’s last four La Liga games.
Last Sunday, Barcelona defeated Sevilla 3-0, just like my good friend Alex predicted. Jordi Alba, Gavi and Raphinha were the scorers. Can you imagine? Robert Lewandowski didn’t score, and Barca still won 3-0.
All three goals were scored in the second half, but Los Azulgranas controlled the game from start to end, winning possession with 66% and finishing with seven shots on target, six more than Los Rojiblancos.
I previously mentioned Lewandowski because he’s the league’s top scorer with 14 goals. He’s one of the main reasons Barcelona is the top-scoring team with 42 goals, two more than Real Madrid, owning the best defensive record after only allowing seven goals in 20 games.
Overall, Los Azulgranas won 10 of their last 11 matches. Plus, they’re 9-0-1 when playing on the road. Considering all of the above, the -125 price that they’re offering to win straight up is a great deal.
Finally, Barcelona can’t afford to lose since it’s very likely that Real Madrid will defeat Elche at home. If Los Azulgranas don’t win, the gap between the two at the top of the standings could be reduced to five points.
Villarreal vs Barcelona Head-to-Head
- Previous Matches: 49
- Villarreal Victories: 9 (58 goals)
- Barcelona Victories: 30 (104 goals)
- Draws: 10
Barcelona had no trouble fulfilling their role as soccer betting favorites in the first meeting with Villarreal in October. The game, held at Camp Nou, finished 3-0 with Robert Lewandowski as Man of the Match after scoring a brace. Ansu Fati also scored. All three goals were scored in the first half
Los Azulgranas won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Yellow Submarine, finishing with a clean sheet three times and failing to score only once.
Villarreal vs Barcelona Match Information
- Match: Villarreal vs Barcelona
- Date/time: Sunday, Feb. 12, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: El Madrigal, Villarreal
- Villarreal vs Barcelona Live Stream: fuboTV
Villarreal vs Barcelona Betting Lines
Villarreal vs Barcelona Picks and Prediction
Forget about an upset, but that doesn’t mean that Villarreal won’t put up a good fight. In fact, I recommend you include the draw in your soccer picks. Barcelona’s last six victories on the road were by only one goal, and this time, it’ll be facing a top-class defense. Plus, Barca is already thinking about Manchester United. It will face the Red Devils on Thursday for the UEFA Europa League.
Barcelona are listed at -125 in our Vegas La liga lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Barcelona, you have a chance to win $80. The Villarreal are +330, offering a chance to win $330 on a $100 wager. The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Barcelona a 55.56% chance to win, with Villarreal at 23.26%
I expect the final score to be 1-1. That means the under 2½ goals at +115 is also a great option.