Genoa vs Napoli Picks: Fade Home Team on Dec 21

There’s a three-point gap between first and third place in the Italian Serie A. That’s how close the title race is after 16 games. Napoli is one of the top teams, which explains why the Azzurri are -140 in the soccer odds to beat Genoa, a team closer to the relegation zone than the top 10.

Not so fast, though, because the Rossoblu, who are +390, haven’t lost in their last five games. Let’s find out the best Serie A predictions for Genoa vs Napoli, which is a crucial match for both sides!

Genoa vs Napoli Match Information

• Match: Genoa (3-7-6) vs Napoli (11-2-3)
• Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 21, Noon. ET
• Location: Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
• Genoa vs Napoli Live Stream: fuboTV

Check the latest soccer news  before placing your Italian Serie A picks!

Genoa vs Napoli Betting Trends

• Last meeting finished 1-1.
• Both scored in four of the last five meetings.
• The total exceeded 2.5 goals in four of the last five meetings.
• Genoa defeated Napoli for the last time in the 2020-21 season.
• Napoli averages 1.3 goals per game on the road.
• Genoa averages 1.3 goals per game at home.
• Romelu Lukaku is Napoli’s top scorer with six goals.
• Andrea Pinamonti is Genoa’s top scorer with five goals.

Best 2 Picks for Genoa vs Napoli

1. Napoli -½ (-110)

Yes, Genoa hasn’t lost in its previous five games, but only one was against a powerhouse (AC Milan) and it ended 0-0. And let’s face it, AC Milan is not what it used to be. Per Genoa vs Napoli stats, there’s also the fact that four of the Rossoblu’s last five games finished with a draw.

That said, you can expect a good fight from Genoa, but not enough to pull off the stunner or score against the best defensive unit in Serie A. That’s right, no other team has conceded fewer goals than Napoli with 11.

Regarding Napoli, the Azzurri defeated Udinese 3-1 in their last contest. They came from behind and, curiously enough, Napoli scored in the second half. Besides winning the game, the Azzurri won possession with 71 percent. That’s one of the main reasons I think Genoa won’t score. Napoli doesn’t share the ball!

This Scott McTominay pass to Romelu Lukaku at Napoli. Wow! pic.twitter.com/a06XLM3qyz

— Kyama (@ElijahKyama_) December 15, 2024

Let’s not forget that Napoli is playing without Khvicha Kavaratskhelia. The Azzurri’s star player suffered a knee injury a few weeks ago and is not returning until next year. Even with Kavaratskhelia out, the Azzurri scored three goals—that’s how good they are!

Besides coming in as the online betting favorite, Napoli hasn’t lost in its last seven games on the road. That includes having faced powerhouses like Juventus and Inter Milan. As if that weren’t enough, the Azzurri kept a clean sheet in five of those matches and conceded only one goal in the other two.

Finally, even Emily Ratajkowski is a Napoli fan, and I imagine you don’t want to contradict Emily Ratajkowski, do you?

Bet This Pick: Napoli -½ (-108)

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2. Genoa Team Total Under ½ (+103)

Let’s start with the fact that Genoa has scored 13 goals in 16 games. No other team in the Serie A top 13 has scored fewer goals, per Serie A betting trends. Even Venezia, the team in last place after losing 10 of 16 games, has scored more goals with 15.

Now, let’s talk about Genoa’s last two games. First, the Rossoblu played host to Torino, a team that’s not even in the top 10, and failed to score. The match finished 0-0, but the visitors finished with more shots in total.

Most recently, Genoa visited AC Milan and the match also ended 0-0. The Rossoneri won possession and took 22 shots, but that’s not the worst part. The worst part is that the Rossoblu didn’t take a single shot on goal.

If we combine that with the fact that Napoli has the best defensive unit in a league where pretty much every team has a fierce defense, I recommend you include Genoa’s team total under ½ goals in your soccer picks. Besides Genoa winning SU and the draw (neither is happening), that’s the only pick offering a plus price.

Bet This Pick: Genoa Team Total Under ½ Goals (+103)

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.