The weird nature of the bowl season is underscored by the fact that one of the teams in the Fiesta Bowl has just four wins. That’s right: Oregon is 4-2 but the Ducks did beat USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game. As Pac-12 champions, they get a spot in the New Year’s Six while other teams with several more wins (9-1 BYU, for instance) did not get an NY6 bid. Yet, Oregon’s matchup in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl is winnable. Oregon isn’t playing Oklahoma or Texas A&M; it is playing a three-loss Iowa State team that didn’t win its conference championship. This is one of the more unusual matchups over the past 25 years of Fiesta Bowl history. Check out our Iowa State Cyclones vs Oregon Ducks Fiesta Bowl betting picks and news.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Oregon Ducks
College Football Odds: Iowa State -4
Sportsbook Total: 57.5
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Az
Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
Last Meeting: First meeting
Oregon won its first three, then blew an 18-point lead in a loss to Oregon State. The offense sputtered in a loss to California. Oregon got into the Pac-12 Championship Game only because Washington, which won the Pac-12 North Division title, was unable to play due to NCAAF COVID-19 problems. Oregon made the most of its opportunity, beating USC 31-24. The Ducks were erratic over the course of the season. Their offense showed considerable potential but struggled later. Quarterback Tyler Shough regressed as the season moved along. He started crisply but then lost some steam as defenses adjusted to him. In the Pac-12 Championship Game, Shough threw for under 100 yards. Oregon barely passed the ball and had to rely on its defense, which picked off USC quarterback Kedon Slovis three times. Oregon did enough to win, but the Ducks look nothing like the 2019 team that defeated Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and looked like it belonged on a national stage.
Iowa State almost won its first Big 12 football championship. The Cyclones were driving late against Oklahoma, down 27-21 in the final minutes, but threw an interception in the red zone. Quarterback Brock Purdy made too many mistakes against the Sooners. The Sooners are far better than Oregon and likely gave Purdy a meaningful test heading into this Fiesta Bowl. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has dramatically improved the Iowa State program over the past few seasons. The Cyclones, if they are excited to play this bowl game (which is hardly a guarantee; motivation is the big question in non-playoff bowls), should like this matchup.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Oregon Ducks Fiesta Bowl Betting Trends
- Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.
- Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards in its previous game.
- Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last five games versus opponents with a winning record.
Iowa State has played nearly twice as many games as Oregon did, given the different approaches taken to the pandemic by the Big 12 and Pac-12 Conferences. Oregon might be really good next year, but the Ducks have too many limitations this year. Iowa State has a rugged, fierce defense which should keep Oregon’s limited offense under wraps. The Cyclones might struggle in the first half, but over four quarters, they are likely to wear down the Ducks.
Prediction: Iowa State 34, Oregon 17
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