PGA Championship: Reality Strikes. Tiger at 30 to 1, McIlroy Favored

Reality has finally hit the golf betting world where perennial 5/2 favorite in most PGA Major Championships, Tiger Woods, sits in the sportsbook at +3000. Even at +3000, Woods figures as an underlay in a golf environment where there does not appear to be any true stand-out. That makes wagering on this week's PGA Championship, which starts on August 7, a true challenge.

But, handicapping challenges is exactly what sports betting fans should be looking for. Big challenges often times lead to big profits in golf betting. Let's embrace the challenge and look to score on this weekend's PGA Championship!

2014 PGA Championship
When:  Aug. 7 - Aug. 10
Where:  Valhalla Golf Course, Louisville, KY
Analysis:  Tiger withdrew from the fourth round at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational this Sunday due to back spasms. The injury is legit since Tiger had shot a 68 in the first round and followed that up with a 71 and a 72. His form wasn't terrible. So, if he does make it to the course this week, he'll have a puncher's chance.

We'll have to wait and see on Tiger's status. One thing to keep in mind is that at +3000, he's still a major underlay. If you want to bet on Tiger to win the PGA Championship, hold out for at least +4000 or higher.

Okay, enough with Tiger. Can Rory McIlroy, winner of the Bridgestone and The Open Championship, make it three in a row? That would be a feat in itself, not to mention that he'd be winning two out of the four majors this year. Rory is the favorite at +450. Adam Scott, the second choice at +1000, has played very well in 2014 but the odds just aren't where they should be. Winning a major tournament is very difficult on the PGA Tour. Backing a golfer at odds any less than +2000 makes it a bad bet.

That knocks out both Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, each at odds of +1600. Who does it leave?

First, there are numerous par 4s and par 5s on this course. There are only four par 3s at Valhalla, meaning that anybody that wins will have to be able to really drive the ball and get into position for birdies on the par 4s and possibly eagles on the par 5s.

The obvious pick, based also on the golf odds in the sportsbook, becomes Bubba Watson who is averaging 314.8 yards per drive. His accuracy with his drive is at 60.8%, which means Bubba, in most cases, is putting the ball where he wants to on the fairway.

Finally, Bubba's hitting his greens at 68%. All of those stats should lead to the Masters winner putting in a run on Sunday to take home the PGA Championship. Not bad for a +3000 shot, right?

The second pick is Keegan Bradley. Bradley finished fourth at the U.S. Open Golf Championship and finished fourth at the Bridgestone this past weekend. Bradley's sitting up there at +2200, barely above our +2000 cut off. What it tells us is that there is a lot of "chatter" about Bradley's chances to win the PGA Championship this week.

Bradley's averaging 303.2 yards per drive. His driving accuracy is actually better than Bubba's at 61.4% but he's hitting the green at a slightly lower rate with 65.9%. Still, the chatter on Bradley tells me that he's going to put in a great four rounds of golf this week.

I'll go with Keegan Bradley and Bubba Watson to win the PGA Championship. Because of the odds, it makes sense to put a few bucks on both.

Picks:  First Choice - Bubba Watson
Second Choice - Keegan Bradley