If you like to see professional golfers struggle, then the US Open at Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, NY, Thursday-Sunday is your Major watch and must bet. If you like watching Tour professionals that are grown men like Phil Mickelson cry, then this is the weekend for you. And, if you like to bet on US Open golf try these picks. We also have US Open golf matchups and prop bets. An explanation of how to bet on golf and the different types of bets available at BetUS.com are on our golf betting page.
US Open, Golf Majors
The struggle in US Opens is well known, and Winged Foot amps it up with the five previous US Opens played here. Those resulted in one champion that ended up breaking par. Breaking down and crying can happen here with nobody knowing better than Phil Mickelson. Phil, at the last Open played at Winged Foot in 2006, double-bogeyed the 72nd hole to lose by a single stroke (cue tears) to Geoff Ogilvy, who shot 5-over par. Lefty has a total of six runner-up finishes at the US Open, which happens to be the only Major he has left to finish his career Grand Slam.
Trouble lurks everywhere on this extremely difficult layout. It is a major factor to take into consideration when handicapping the tournament. At any point, one stray shot can take any one of the world’s best golfers out of the running. Since part of this is unpredictable to a point, I am not going with the favorites. Here, I am trying to maximize our return on investment, as I do in all my sports betting analysis.
I am not bringing any scrubs into play simply because they have longshot odds. I’m focusing on players that absolutely have a shot to win this USGA event. By using the mid-range odds, we are actually increasing our expected return due to just enough volatility to bring chance into play. These players will still be the ones that are bombers. More importantly, they have top-notch strokes gained tee-to-green, greens-in-regulation (or GIR ratios), and excellent putting skills. Most important, however, is their scrambling ability and short game with stress on wedges.
When Mickelson blew his chance at Winged Foot in 2006, it was his short game that kept him at the top of the leaderboard. This will be the case again as the person that can scramble and get up and down for those tough pars consistently will be the one that pays off.
Players at the top of the heap:
Tommy Fleetwood 28-1
Fleetwood has been in the mix consistently in all the Majors for the last few years and is still halfway flying under the radar. He has made the cut in all 12 Majors he has played since the 2017 US Open, and he has a pair of top-five finishes in the US Open during that time. Tommy closed the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club by becoming the sixth player to post a 63 in the tournament.
It was only Brooks Koepka that closed him out to defeat him by a single stroke, preventing him from getting that first US Open win. This is a great chance to make up for that this week. For recent play, he sharpened his game in the Portugal Masters and he cut like a knife all the way to a third-place tie. This is your top pick.
Daniel Berger 28-1
As far as consistency goes and finishing near the leader in almost every event he has played in this year, you will not find a better golfer than Berger. He continued his pre-Covid break success by winning the first PGA Tour event back: the Charles Schwab Challenge, played at the Colonial. Berger has all the skills and consistency to be the man at the top when it comes down to the end and is 10th in bogey avoidance this year. He has the experience and ability to deal with pressure. He also has a couple of third-place finishes and a tie for second place in his run to the US Open.
Webb Simpson 23-1
Simpson won the 2012 US Open. He has a well-rounded game on a skill level above almost every other Tour golfer out there. At least since he figured out how to adjust from his past putter-anchoring technique. He is leading the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, adjusted scoring, putting per greens-in-regulation, and par-4 scoring. Is that rounded out perfectly enough for you?
Tyrrell Hatton 40/1
This is a golfer that loves the grind, and this golf course is one that can ground the grind out of you. Tyrrell has shown consistency in a long stretch of tournaments this year without showing any signs of wear, and he has the moxie to persevere in what will be the most taxing golf tournament of the year. I believe Hatton is one of the few golfers worth playing in both top five and top ten betting, because his golf odds payouts at BetUS outweigh the risk involved.
Xander Schauffele 13-1
US Opens love Xander, and Schauffele loves them right back with a tie for fifth, tie for sixth, and a tie for third in three appearances. And he was just a runner up at East Lake if that helps at all.
I am happy to share what I hope is a windfall of Winged Foot success and a ‘lil cash never hurts on those winning bets. Take this advice and use it! Maximize your options. All you have to do now is bet on it, baby!!