Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs News & Picks
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
|Buffalo Bills||+3 -110||54 -110 O||+140|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-3 -110||54 -110 U||-160|
**Odds as of 01/20**
Against the Spread (Devlin Duckett)
Although it looks like Patrick Mahomes will be starting the AFC Championship game vs Buffalo, his injuries hamper the offense. Mahomes suffered a bizarre concussion on an injury to his neck, and also is dealing with a toe injury. The quarterback’s mobility, along with the Chiefs’ playbook, will be severely limited. Head coach Andy Reid will be walking on eggshells with play-calling, loath to risk another nasty hit on Mahomes. If Mahomes is forced to exit the game, Kansas City’s hopes rest on Chad Henne’s shoulders.
The Chiefs have several key players who are banged up, and all of this plays into Buffalo’s hands. The Bills are 9-1 ATS over their previous 10 matchups, while the Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine contests. Kansas City has been horrible against the spread all season, and that won’t change in the championship game.
Buffalo’s offense is elite, and its defense has come a long way since K.C. beat them 26-17 in Week 6. In the Divisional Round vs the Ravens, the Bills sacked Lamar Jackson four times and forced five fumbles, en route to a 17-3 victory. Buffalo’s CB Taron Johnson also intercepted Jackson in the end zone, scoring on a 101-yard pick-six that sealed the win for the Bills. Take Buffalo and the points, as they will win the game straight up. Bills 30, Chiefs 20
Over/Under (Zack Robinson)
Over/Under 53 ½
During the postseason, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills average 22 points per game, but they finished the regular season averaging 31.3 points per game (second best in the league).
Allen has thrown for 530 yards and three touchdowns. Stefon Diggs caught two of those touchdown passes; he also has 234 receiving yards (best in the postseason).
There is one tiny problem with the Bills’ offense; their running game. Devin Singletary led the team against the Baltimore Ravens with just 25 yards (seven attempts); Zack Moss was out due to injury, but he didn’t perform any differently against the Indianapolis Colts during the Wild Card weekend (21 yards in seven attempts).
The total has gone over in nine of Buffalo’s last 13 games against an opponent from the AFC West.
Patrick Mahomes wants to play, but the decision doesn’t belong to him. He’s still in concussion protocol. That’s why right now Chad Henne is preparing to be under center.
Even if Mahomes is able to play, he’s not going to be at 100% (mentally), but still, he’s very good at 80%. And he has two of the best offensive players in the league: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
Lately, the Chiefs running game hasn’t been very good. Darrel Williams led the team against the Cleveland Browns with 78 yards (13 attempts). Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been what they expected.
The total has gone under in four of Kansas City’s last five games against Buffalo, including the Week 6 matchup, when the Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17.
Go under once again, especially if Mahomes don’t play.
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