The New York Mets are projected to win the National League East. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the heavy favorite to win the 2021 World Series, but the Mets have slipped into this conversation as well.
The Mets are a talented team, but recent injuries may have knocked a few wins off their 2021 record.
BetUS Sportsbook has the Mets’ 2021 win total listed at 90½ victories. The odds are -115 for the over and under on this futures bet.
The Mets are competing in the toughest division in baseball, but they are still a top-tier franchise. However, I am going to take the under on the Mets’ 2021 win total.
I think the Mets will get hot in the mid-summer, but the beginning of their season will be tough. They will be without a few key players that would have helped them take their wins over 90 on the season.
A team cannot win a division in the first few months of the season, but they can lose it early. I think the Mets will be in too deep of a hole by the third month of the year when their reputable players return.
Carrasco Hamstring Injury
Carlos Carrasco was not going to be New York’s ace, but he was going to play a significant role in the rotation. Carrasco just tore his hamstring, so he will miss at least a month of action. It’s believed that he will not be in the rotation for all of April.
Carrasco’s injury will force a Mets reliever into the starting rotation. The bottom of New York’s rotation without Carrasco is fragile. David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi will be in the starting rotation.
Peterson is 25 years old, and Lucchesi is 27. Neither pitcher should be in New York’s starting rotation, but they will have to get by due to injuries. Carrasco finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2017 after leading the American League in wins with 18 for Cleveland.
Bullpen Takes a Hit
Peterson and Lucchesi moving to the starting rotation will put extra strain on the team’s bullpen. This is compounded now with the injury to New York relief pitcher Seth Lugo, who had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow in February.
Lugo should be back by May because the Mets stated that they intended to shut him down for six weeks. He is on track with his recovery, but they will miss him early in the season.
Not having veteran players in April can hurt a team from surpassing 90 wins, which will be the case with the Mets.
What will Mets get from Syndergaard?
Noah Syndergaard, one of the Mets’ best pitchers behind Jacob deGrom, is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He is expected to be in the rotation by July 1, but it’s unknown how he will pitch coming off the injury.
The Mets believe that they will get the Syndergaard from the past, but I am hesitant because of his arm. Syndergaard should be better than Peterson and Lucchesi when he returns, but it will take the former All-Star some time to get adjusted to being back on an MLB mound.
In my mind, there are too many injuries and questions with the Mets in 2021 to take the over on the BetUS win totals. Ninety-one wins is a massive number to achieve, and there is not a lot of room for error to get to this point.
The Mets will finish behind the Braves in the National League East without reaching 90 wins. The bats will not be enough to recover from the pitching flaws that are already arising in New York.
Go with the under on the Mets this season when doing your MLB betting.