Spring is in the air, MLB betting enthusiasts! With the start of the 2021 MLB regular season just under a month away from its April 1 start date, it’s time for some expert MLB predictions on the 2021 AL Cy Young award odds.
New York Yankees veteran right-hander Gerrit Cole sits alone as the prohibitive favorite at +350. Cleveland Indians staff ace and reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is next at +450. Chicago White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito is a +550 pick and Tampa Bay Rays hurler Tyler Glasnow is a +12000 favorite. Rounding out the top five favorites is Toronto Blue Jays lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu at +1400.
There’s also plenty of value in the middle of the pack and at the far end of the odds leaderboard with several ‘live long shots’ lurking.
Let’s take a look at some of the top favorites – followed by my three top longshot contenders.
AL Cy Young Odds 2021
Gerrit Cole +350
Shane Bieber +450
Lucas Giolito +550
Tyler Glasnow +1200
Hyun-Jin Ryu +1400
Jose Berrios +1600
Lance Lynn +1600
Corey Kluber +2000
Chris Sale +2000
Kenta Maeda +2500
Dallas Keuchel +3000
Framber Valdez +3000
Andrew Heaney +3000
Jesus Luzardo +3500
Have you made your wagers on the MLB division odds?
Gerrit Cole
NY Yankees – Right-Hander +350
Cole went an encouraging 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA in a dozen starts last season. The 30-year-old right-hander finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race in his first season with the Yankees by recording his third consecutive sub-3.00 ERA. As it stands, Cole looks like a lock to reach the 20-win plateau. The New York Yankees are a World Series contender that is loaded with talent all over the place and that means Cole will have a great shot to cash in as the prohibitive favorite.
Shane Bieber
Cleveland Indians – Right-Hander +450
In his third season, the 25-year-old Bieber went 8-1 in 12 starts with a stunning 1.63 ERA to claim the 2020 AL Cy Young award. Bieber went 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA as a sophomore in 2019, so last season was clearly no fluke. Simply put, I expect the reigning AL Cy Young winner to contend at the least, even if he’s not my pick to actually win it.
Lucas Giolito
Chicago White Sox – Right-Hander +550
The 26-year-old right-hander made a dozen starts for the Chicago White Sox last season while going 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA to finish sixth in the AL Cy Young voting. The 6-6 power pitcher went 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 29 starts in 2019, but I think Giolito is always going to be a guy with an ERA that hovers just over 3.00. Chicago is expected to contend for the AL Pennant, but as far as Giolito winning the AL Cy Young award, I don’t see it happening.
Tyler Glasnow
Tampa Bay Rays – Right-Hander +1200
I love the value the 27-year-old Tampa Bay Rays starter is offering as a +1200 pick. The huge, 6-8 right-hander went a stellar 5-1 in 11 starts last season, although his 4.08 ERA leaves a lot to be desired. Still, Glasnow did go 6-1 with a jaw-dropping 1.78 ERA in 12 starts in 2019. There’s no doubt Glasnow has the talent to win a Cy Young award. The bad news is that he’s never made more than 13 starts in a single season in his five-year career.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Toronto Blue Jays – Right-Hander +1400
Ryu might be 33 years old, but I think he’s offering as much value as any of the aforementioned favorites. The Toronto Blue Jays’ right-hander went 5-2 with a rock-solid 2.69 ERA in 12 starts last season. The South Korean import went 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA in 29 starts for LA in 2019 and looks like an easy pick to finish in the top three for the 2021 AL Cy Young award.
Live Long Shots
Outside of the top five favorites, I like three players to potentially challenge for the AL Cy Young in 2021 despite their longer odds.
Kenta Maeda
Minnesota Twins – Right-Hander +2500
I don’t know why the 27-year-old has just the 10th-best odds of winning the 2021 AL Cy Young, but I love his value heading into the new season. Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts for the Minnesota Twins last season to finish second in the AL Cy Young voting. In five years in the bigs, Maeda is 53-36 with a solid 3.75 ERA. Minnesota is expected to challenge for the AL pennant and I’m thinking Maeda is going to be good for at least 15 wins minimum. Maeda has made at least 29 starts in all four of his full regular seasons and that tells me Maeda is going to be healthy. With enough run support from Minnesota’s potent offense – it could happen!
Zack Greinke
Houston Astros – Left-Hander (+3000)
Yes, I know Greinke is now 37 and clearly not the pitcher he once was. Still, the 2009 AL Cy Young winner did manage to go 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 12 starts for the Houston Astros last season. More importantly, Greinke went a stellar 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA in 33 starts while splitting the 2019 campaign with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston. If Greinke can reach 18 victories again in 2021, he’ll contend as a value-packed +3000 long shot.
Frankie Montas
Oakland Athletics – Right-Hander +3500
The 27-year-old hurler went 3-5 with a high, 5.60 ERA in 11 starts last season, but this is still the same guy that went 9-2 with a fine, 2.63 ERA in 16 starts in 2019. I expect the Oakland A’s to challenge for the AL West crown and AL pennant and Montas will be a big part of why. Montas is flying under the radar heading into the 2021 campaign, but the native Dominican is talented and in the prime of his career. I like Montas a lot as a +3500 long shot.
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