Sugar Bowl: #5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. #7 Baylor Bears

Allstate Sugar Bowl
#5 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) vs. #7 Baylor Bears (11-2)
New Years Day - 8:45 PM ET - Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Betting Line: Georgia -7.5, Total 41.5

#5 Georgia was one game away from a potential trip to the College Football Playoff. They were 11-1 and headed to the SEC Championship. Unfortunately, that dream was shattered by LSU. Instead, the Bulldogs are headed to a New Year's Day bowl game. It's Georgia's second straight trip to the Allstate Sugar Bowl. There, they'll be facing the 11-2 Baylor Bears.

Want to know more about this matchup? Keep reading!

The Numbers

Georgia is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They're allowing just 12.5 points per game. Their rushing defense is impenetrable as they allow an average of just 75.7 yards on the ground every game. UGA's pass defense gives up 198.5 yards per game.

Offensively, the Bulldogs score 31.2 points per game. They average 410.2 yards per game, split up between their 220.9 passing and 189.3 rushing yards.

Baylor is putting up 35.2 points per game. Their offense focuses on running the ball, however it's the passing game that's been more effective. The Bears have rushed theball 476 times compared to 394 passes thrown. They average 256.7 yards through the air versus 174.5 on the ground.

A big part of that is the sheer amount of players that touch the ball in the backfield. Fiften players have recorded a rushing attempt for this Bears offense. Collectively, they average 4.8 yards per carry. They've rushed for 34 touchdowns and have passed for 23.

The Resume

The Bulldogs kicked off the 2019-2020 season with a quality win at Vanderbilt. They played their next three games at home, beating Murray State (63-17), Arkansas State (55-0), and #7 Notre Dame (23-17) before visiting Tennesse for a 43-14 win.

Georgia's next four games would also be at home. They lost the first one to South Carolina 20-17 before shutting out Kentucky and Missouri and beating #6 Florida.

UGA's final four games consisted of wins versus #12 Auburn, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech. They lost the SEC Championship to #2 LSU 37-10.

Baylor railed off nine straight wins before they (and lost to) their first ranked opponent in #10 Oklahoma. They wouldn't lose until facing OU once more in the Big 12 Championship in a 30-23 game that went to overtime.

Baylor won at home versus Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Texas. They beat Rice, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas on the road. Five of those wins were decided by eight points or less.

The Players

Jake Fromm and D'andre Swift led the offense for Georgia. Fromm didn't have a particularly spectacular year. He completed just 60.3% of his passes for 2,610 yards, 22 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He did manage to stay out of trouble as he was sacked just 12 times all season.

Swift carried the load for the Bulldogs. He carried the ball 195 times for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry.

WR George Pickens caught the most passes for UGA (37) for 552 yards and seven touchdowns.

Noone got past Monty Rice on defense. The LB recorded 45 solo tackles and 39 assisted tackles for an 84 total.

Baylor's defense, led by James Lynch, recorded 43 sacks on the season. Lunch led the team with 12.5 sacks on his own. He forced three fumbles, and recovered two. The Bears forced 15 fumbles as a team.

QB Charlie Brewer completed 65.2% of his passes for 2,950 yards and 20 touchdowns. He rushed for another 10 touchdowns, however he only had 337 yards on 2.4 yards per carry.

John Lovett and Jamycal led split the load in the backfield. Lovett carried the ball 100 times for 637 yards and five touchdowns while Hasty rushed 101 times for 614 yards and seven touchdowns.

Denzel Mims was the lead receiver with 945 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns for Baylor.

The Verdict

To decide the pick, we need to determine who or what the difference maker will be. Will the running backs rule the day? Possibly. Are we headed towards a low-scoring game? Probably. Will there be less than 41.5 points scored? I think so.

With the under being a likely outcome, it's wise to parlay it with Baylor +7.5. Forty-one and a half is not a lot of points, which leaves limited room for Georgia to cover while keeping the total under. Take the Bears +7.5 and under 41.5 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.