Bills 2020 Betting Record
Point Spread: 12-7
Total: Over-Under: 12-7
The biggest surprise of the 2020 season, the Bills established themselves as Super Bowl contenders and online betting darlings. They got off a quick start and never looked back, finishing the regular season 13-3 and winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995. Quarterback Josh Allen had a breakout year, even garnering some MVP buzz at various points in the season.
The Bills made the playoffs for the third time in four years under coach Sean McDermott. They overshot their sportsbook projected win total by four wins and came into the season with 30-1 NFL Betting odds to win the Super Bowl.
Point Spread: 3-1
It was a picture perfect start to the season for Buffalo. New additions bolstered Buffalo’s defensive prowess, and wide receiver Stefon Diggs quickly established himself as Allen’s favorite target. Through four games, Allen threw 12 touchdown passes to just one interception. It was by far the best stretch of Allen’s young career, and he quickly answered the question of whether he was Buffalo’s franchise QB in year three. The Bills started 4-0 for the first time since 2008 and became AFC East favorites.
Point Spread: 0-4
Buffalo faced its biggest challenges of the year during this stretch. In Weeks 5 and 6, the Bills were matched up against both of the previous season’s AFC Championship teams. Their game against the Titans was postponed due to COVID and they were blown out 42-16 for their first loss of the season. Their next matchup was a home showdown with the reigning Super Bowl champs, Kansas City.
Buffalo’s defense couldn’t contain Pat Mahomes, and Allen struggled for a second straight week. At this point it would have been easy to think that the first few games of the season may have been fluky and the Bills weren’t true contenders. But, the Bills responded with two straight wins against AFC East competition.
Point Spread: 4-0
Total: Over-Under: 3-1
Buffalo faced some pretty tricky games on the schedule in the third quarter of the year. They met three NFC West teams with playoff ambitions. The Bills not only handed the Seahawks just their second loss of the season, but were the only team to put up 40 or more points against them all season. The Bills picked off MVP-candidate Russell Wilson twice en route to an impressive win as three-point underdogs.
They followed it up with a last-second loss to the Cardinals after a Kyler Murray Hail Mary pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Buffalo quickly bounced back with two wins against the Chargers and 49ers, and were an excellent 9-3 after 12 games. The Bills covered the spread in all four of these games.
Point Spread: 4-0
Total: Over-Under: 2-2
The Bills finished the season with a six game straight-up and against-the-spread winning streak — rattling off four more wins in the final quarter, none of which were particularly close. The Bills handed the Steelers a second loss in as many weeks after Pittsburgh started the season 11-0. They also won their last three games by a combined 88-point margin, winning by a whopping 29.7 points per game and scoring 47.3 points per game in these contests.
The Bills got hot at the perfect time, heading into the playoffs as the second seed in the AFC. It wasn’t farfetched to say that they could win the Super Bowl. The Bills set a franchise record for most points scored in a single season and it wasn’t particularly close. Allen finished the season with 4544 yards, a 69.2 percent completion percentage and 37 touchdown passes, all career highs. Diggs led the league in receiving yards in his first season with the Bills, with 1535. Additionally, Buffalo’s defense forced 26 turnovers, which was second in the NFL.
Divisional Record: 8-0
Conference Record: 10-2
The Bills drew a tough first round opponent in the Philip Rivers-led Indianapolis Colts. They came into the game as seven point favorites but didn’t cover the spread. What they did do though was win their first playoff game in 25 years, as they grinded out a 27-24 win. Allen was excellent as he completed 26 of 35 passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns. He also managed to lead the Bills in rushing as they advanced to the Divisional Round.
The Bills faced a dangerous Ravens team in the Divisional Round. The Bills got very little going on offense and the score was tied at three heading into halftime. Stefon Diggs broke the deadlock with a touchdown reception in the third quarter. The Bills crucially intercepted Lamar Jackson, and Taron Johnson returned it 101 yards to give Buffalo a two-touchdown lead. The Bills held on and beat the Ravens 17-3 in a defensive battle to advance to an AFC Championship showdown with the Chiefs.
AFC Championship Game:
The Bills came into the game as three-point underdogs but got off to a quick start in the first quarter. Tyler Bass hit a 51 yard field goal, and Allen found TE Dawson Knox to go up 9-0. Bass missed the PAT, but Buffalo was in control of the game, if only for a little while. The Chiefs came roaring back in the second quarter with 21 points, and the Bills had trouble containing Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Buffalo kept it close until late in the third quarter, when the Chiefs took a 38-15 lead. Kansas City would go on to defeat Buffalo 38-24 to advance to a second straight Super Bowl appearance. It was a bittersweet end to what was by far the best Bills season in a quarter century.
Full Season Grade: A
Looking Ahead to Next Season
The speed gap between the Chiefs and Bills was readily apparent in the AFC Championship game and it certainly wouldn’t hurt to add a quicker reinforcement at CB. Multiple Bills offensive linemen have contracts running out, so they’ll need to decide who to keep with their limited cap space. The Bills defense is pretty solid but their pass rush could still certainly be improved.
Josh Allen silenced pretty much all of his doubters with his stellar play in 2020 and is clearly Buffalo’s franchise QB going forward. The Bills could be contenders for years to come with him at the helm. Stefon Diggs is one of the best wide receivers in the league, and the Bills have him under contract for a few more years. Buffalo simply has one of the best offenses in the NFL and it should stay that way for a while.
Predicted Record for 2021 Season: 11-5
The Bills have some pretty tricky games lined up, with non-divisional games at New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Tennessee. It’s hard to see them replicating their 13-3 record from last year, but I think they’ll be in line for a second straight AFC East title. Hopefully we also get to see Bills Mafia in action this fall.