NFL Week 17 always provides high-stakes drama with teams battling for playoff positions and division titles. There are still four AFC playoff spots up-for-grabs and three NFC spots, along with two division champions (AFC South and NFC East) that will be crowned Sunday. Obviously, there are plenty of meaningful games this week but the NFL matchup that will have the greatest impact on the NFC playoffs is between the (8-7) Chicago Bears and the (12-3) Green Bay Packers. Keep reading to check out our Bears vs Packers Week 17 betting analysis.
Shoutout if your team entered 2021 still having a chance at that ring 🙌🙌🙌 pic.twitter.com/ItsAlwkfNC
— Sunday Night Football (@SNFonNBC) January 1, 2021
The Packers head to Soldier Field to take on their heated division rivals the (8-7) Bears at 4:25 p.m. ET, on FOX.
The Packers have already clinched the NFC North but they need a win to guarantee the No. 1 seed in the NFC which would give them the only bye in the conference and home-field throughout the playoffs. The Bears are in the postseason if they win or the (8-7)Arizona Cardinals lose.
Bears vs Packers Week 17 Betting
When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Forecast: 38 and partially sunny
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) January 1, 2021
NFL’s Oldest Rivalry
The Green Bay Packers lead the all-time series 100-95-6 over the Chicago Bears in the NFL’s oldest rivalry. The Chicago Staleys won the first matchup between the cities in 1921. Basically every year since then these organizations have been playing at least twice a season. Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises have had some of the NFL’s best games and moments throughout the league’s history. Below is some highlights from one of the best rivalries any sport has seen:
Although the Bears-Packers may be the oldest rivalry, I struggle calling it the NFL’s best rivalry. This is because the Packers have dominated the series as of last. Dating to January of 2011, the Bears have managed a 3-18 record against the Packers. NFL rivalries are always evolving but for a rivalry to be considered the best in the NFL there needs to be more balance in the recent history.
Aaron Rodgers LOVES playing against the Bears…
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 31, 2020
Week 12: Packers 41, Bears 25
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers threw for four TD as the Packers beat down the Bears at Lambeau Field. Green Bay (8-3) scored touchdowns on each of its first three possessions and grabbed a three-game division edge over Chicago (5-6) and Minnesota. The loss by the Bears was the fifth consecutive after they started the season with a 5-1 record. The victory over the Bears started the five-game winning streak that the Packers are currently in the midst of.
Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky went 26-of-46 for 242 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs while starting in place of injured-Nick Foles — who replaced Trubisky as the starter after the third week of the season. This was the beginning of the re-emergence of Trubisky as he has led the Bears offense to one of its best four game streaks in franchise history – averaging 35 PPG since the loss in Green Bay (third-best in the NFL in that stretch).
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 28, 2020
The Packers defeated the Titans 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. With a light snow falling, it was a picturesque game in Lambeau for Green Bay as they ran over the Titans. The Titans came into the game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL but were put in check by the current best team in the NFC. The Packers defense played lights-out football, holding the Titans No. 1 ranked offense to 260 total yards and 14 points. Rodgers’ performance (21-25, 231 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT) vaulted him into the MVP odds front-runner. He connected with All-Pro WR Devante Adams for 141 yards and three TDs. Adams’ 17 receiving TDs leads the NFL this season.
The (8-7) Bears trounced the (1-14) Jaguars 41-17 in Jacksonville on Sunday. Trubisky accounted for three scores, including two TD passes to TE Jimmy Graham as the Bears offense rolled over the Jaguars. The loss to the Bears locked Jacksonville into the No. 1 draft position for the first time in franchise history. It was a gift for the Bears, who needed to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, to play the NFL’s worst team in Week 16 — but the win did not prove they are ready to play with the NFC’s best in the postseason.
What’s at Stake?
“We both have something to play for,” Rodgers said. “We’re playing for the 1 seed, they’re playing for their playoff lives, so there’s a lot at stake for both squads. We got after them a few weeks ago; they’ve been playing a lot better since then. We know what kind of game it’s going to be.”
What’s at Stake for the Packers?
It was already mentioned above that the Packers are playing to lock themselves into th No. 1 seed in the NFC. They do not actually need a win for them to have a bye next week, but if they lost they would need the Seahawks to lose as well. What else is at stake for the Packers on Sunday? Multiple franchise and NFL records are in reach for Rodgers and his receiving buddy Adams.
Adams has 17 touchdown catches, one off the team record Sterling Sharpe set in 1994. He’s also has 109 receptions, two off his own career high and three behind Sharpe’s 1993 franchise-record total. Adams is the third player in NFL history to have 100-plus receptions and 17-plus touchdown catches in the same season. Hall-of Famer’s Cris Carter and Randy Moss are the other two receivers to have done it before him. Adams has done all this in 13 games this season because he missed two full games with a hamstring injury.
rs has one last chance this season to make his case for winning a third MVP. He has thrown 44 touchdown passes – one off his 2011 career high — with only five interceptions.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 31, 2020
The Packers have outscored their opponents 198-86 in the second quarter of games. They outscored the Bears 21-7 in the second period during the first meeting between these teams.
If the Packers get any points in the second period Sunday, they will become the highest-scoring, second-quarter team in NFL history
What’s at Stake for the Bears?
The Bears somehow managed to turn their season around just in time for a Week 17 matchup with the top-dog in their division. The Bears have had a story of three-different seasons so far. They started the season 5-1 by winning low scoring games behind their defense. Then, they went on to lose six-straight which put them two games under five-hundred and on the outside looking in on the playoff race. Reenter Mitch Trubisky, sparking the Bears’ offense which has powered them to three straight wins.
Guarantee Their Spot
The Bears do not need to win to make the postseason but a win would guarantee their spot and make it so they do not need to rely on the Rams to beat the Cardinals. The Bears could become the third team since the 1970 merger to reach the playoffs after losing six in a row.
Trubisky and star receiver Allen Robinson could be playing their final game for Chicago, with their contracts expiring at the end of the season. Trubisky, the former second-overall pick in the 2017 draft, is quite literally playing for his future with the Bears. He has had a roller-coaster career so far in Chicago, but a win and a second playoff berth in three years would make it hard for the Bears to not re-sign him this offseason. If they lose and miss the postseason then the Bears could have incentive to draft a QB and let Trubisky go in free-agency.
Hasn’t really hit me yet this could be the last time we will see Mitch Trubisky and Allen Robinson in a Chicago Bears’ uniform.
Really hope they’re both back next season. pic.twitter.com/x12pRQAwNs
— Joseph Herff (@JosephHerffNFL) December 30, 2020
Pro-Bowl WR Robinson will be set for a big contract this offseason as he has proved to be one of the league’s most consistent receivers over his career. He amazingly only has one drop on his 145 targets (No. 3 in the NFL). Last week he joined Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins as the only players to record at least 95 catches and 1,000 yards the past two seasons. The Bears will need to pay to keep Robinson next season and the outcome of their season will have a huge impact on their offseason moves.
🥇 Davante Adams
🥈 Justin Jefferson
🥉 Allen Robinson II
PFF’s highest-graded WRs of 2020 🏆 pic.twitter.com/4UpHOVvLY0
— PFF (@PFF) December 29, 2020
Bears vs Packers Week 17 Betting: Keys to the Game
Packers Defense Against the Bears’ Hot Offense
The Packers defense has performed well all season which now has them ranked as the No. 7 defense in the league. Trubisky and the Bears started heating up when these two teams played last. The Packers will need to do a good job containing Bears’ RB David Montgomery who rushed for over 100 yards in their first meeting this season. The Packers held the (10-5) Tennessee Titans’ No. 1 offensive to 14 points in Week 16. They held the league’s top rusher, Derrick Henry, under 100 rushing yards and really made it difficult on Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill all game – Tannehill was 11-24 for 121 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Can the Bears Slow Down the Packers’ Rushing Attack?
The Packers’ victory over the Titans will mostly be remembered for how well Rodgers and Adams played. But the real reason they were able to completely dominate their opponent was their ability to move the ball on the ground. Green Bay rushed for 234 yards led by rookie second-rounder A.J. Dillion’s 128 yards and two TDs. Adams is impossible to stop if Rodgers plays well, so I think the key for the Bears is to focus on taking away RBs Aaron Jones and Dillion. Green Bay is nearly impossible to beat if they can control the ball and get their play-action passing attack going. The Bears need to out-rush the Packers if they want to upset the ‘King in the North.’
Bears vs Packers Week 17 Betting Breakdown
|Team||Points Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Packers||-4½ -115||-220||50½ -110o||27½|
|Bears||+4½ -105||+180||50½ -110u||21½|
The Packers are the best team in the NFC for many reasons this year. Their defense has been solid all year, and their offensive line has been one of the best in the NFL. The loss of All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, to what is believed to be a season-ending knee injury suffered in practice on Thursday is a definite blow to their offense. The play calling for Green Bay will most likely start to change this week to help offset their loss. Rodgers will have to adjust his game slightly to continue his dominant play but if anyone knows how to tweak and consistently evolve it’s the veteran QB.
Green Bay has played like a complete team on a mission all year behind another incredible season from Rodgers. And once again, Rodgers will be the difference in the game against the Bears. Trubisky is leagues away from being able to go toe-to-toe with one of the NFL’s all-time great QB’s.
Betting against Aaron Rodgers when he is playing the Bears is as good as throwing your money away. No way Rodgers is letting home-field advantage slip through his fingers because he knows playing in Lambeau is the key to their journey to Super Bowl LV.
— Jason Coff❌an (@djjc911) December 28, 2020
Moneyline Pick: Packers -220
The Packers have covered three straight meetings and are 18-7 ATS against Chicago when Rodgers starts (including playoffs). Green Bay’s defense is going to bring Trubisky back down to earth and make his future in Chicago a big-offseason topic. I think 4½-points is a bargain for the NFC’s top-team.
Point Spread Pick: Packers -4½ -115
I expect the Packers to be clicking on all cylinders as they put up 21 points in the first half. But they will control the ball in the second half and keep this game under 50 points by keeping the Bears under 21 points.
Over/Under Pick: Under 50½ points
Bears fans may want to get ready to keep a close eye on the Cardinals/Rams score because I do not think they will get a win in the last week of the regular-season. The Packers are the class of the NFC and they are about to prove it once again.
Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 17
Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds