Coach T’s NFL Breakdown: No. 2 Bills vs No. 1 Chiefs

We have made it all the way to the NFL’s Conference Championship games, which means there are three NFL games left to bet on before the online betting football season ends. The final four teams left have the four of the top five rated quarterbacks of 2020. The AFC Championship Game is scheduled for Sunday and the kickoff time is set for 6:40 p.m. ET, at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City. Arrowhead will play host to two of the brightest young stars at the position, hopefully.

The No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs are playing host to their third AFC Championship Game in as many years with Patrick Mahomes as their starting QB. Mahomes exited and did not return to the Divisional Round game against the Browns after he sustained a concussion and a neck injury in the third quarter and his status remains questionable. The preseason favorite to win Super Bowl LV, the (15-2) Chiefs are right on track to defend their Super Bowl from last season. Kansas City is the only team this year that had such high expectations that it was Super Bowl or bust for them this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs are headed back to the AFC Championship Game for the third consecutive season! pic.twitter.com/sXd35T5A19

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 17, 2021

The second-seeded Buffalo Bills won their first playoff game since 1995 when they beat the Colts on Super Wild-Card Weekend. Led by their third-year QB Josh Allen, the Bills have turned things around quickly and took a major NFL betting leap this season by capturing the No. 2 seed. The last time the Bills were in the Super Bowl they lost in 1994, which capped-off their record-setting fourth straight Super Bowl loss in a row. All that is well behind the Bills’ young ballclub and the future looks bright — no-matter the outcome of the AFC Championship Game.

A date with the champs.#BUFvsKC | #BillsMafia

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 19, 2021

Week 6, 2020: Chiefs 26, Bills 17

Week 6 of the NFL season featured both Conference Championship matchups. The Chiefs went to Buffalo and left with a 26-17 victory. They moved to 5-1 and the Bills fell to 4-2.

The Chiefs’ running backs touched the ball a season-high 40 times the first time these teams. The reason the Chiefs ran the ball so much is that the Bills played a two-high shell for most of the game. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 26 rushes for 161 yards in the Chiefs’ win. Mahomes completed a season-high 80.8% of his passes, although his average depth of throw was just 6.5 yards due to the Bills taking away the deep pass by playing with two deep safeties. Mahomes was 21-26 for 225 yards and two-TDs, both TDs were caught by TE Travis Kelce.

In the Week 6 matchup, the pressure on the QB was a major issue for the Bills. Allen was not sacked in that game, but he was under pressure for a season-high 54.8% of his dropbacks in that game. Allen completed a season-low 51.9% of his passes for a season-low 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Under pressure, Allen’s yards per attempt dropped 2.0 yards and his completion rate decreased by 29.6%. Allen was dealing with a shoulder injury before the game that was used as a reason why he played poorly, but the Chiefs’ defense deserves the bulk of the credit.

Blitz Josh Allen at your own risk 🚀 pic.twitter.com/tasDFzlsn2

— PFF (@PFF) January 19, 2021

Divisional Round

Both the No. 1 Chiefs and the No. 2 Bills played host to their games in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and were involved in low-scoring games where their defenses led the way to the victory.

Bills 17, Ravens 3

Even though the Bills were out-gained by the Ravens from 340 to 220 in total yards, they were somehow able to hold the Ravens to a measly field goal. It was the first time all season the Bills held an opponent out of the end zone. Taron Johnson’s 101-yard pick-six was the play that swung the game in the Bills’ favor for good. The 101-yard return tied the NFL record for the longest postseason interception return recorded.

101 yards the other way. @Taronj11 had Buffalo rocking. (by @WilsonFootball) pic.twitter.com/XyHnP3xO0j

— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2021

Lamar Jackson’s first red-zone interception of his entire career came at the worst moment imaginable for him and the Ravens’ organization. It was third-and-goal from the nine with the Ravens trailing 10-3 when Johnson intercepted Jackson. Two plays later, Jackson was hit in the backfield after a bad snap and he was slow to get up. He left the game and did not return because he showed signs of a concussion after hitting the back head hard off the turf.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen called Johnson’s interception a “franchise-altering play” and said “he will be remembered for a long time here in Buffalo” during his postgame interview.

In a season in which the Bills relied mostly on their dynamic Allen-led offense to outscore opponents, the Bills needed their defense to advance to the AFC Championship. Allen, an MVP candidate this year, finished 23 of 37 for 206 yards and a touchdown. Allen will need to play much better if the Bills want to get past the Chiefs.

Chiefs 22, Browns 17

Mahomes had not played a game in over two weeks, but he showed no signs of rust as he methodically led the Chiefs offense 75-yards on 10-plays on their opening possession of the game. And again, shortly after the second quarter began he capped off another 75-yard drive that ended with a touchdown. After two field goals in the second quarter, the Chiefs led 19-3 and seemed to be cruising to their third straight Conference Championship.

Everything changed early in the third quarter when Mahomes was taken to the turf by his head/neck. Mahomes was slow to get up, clearly showing signs of a concussion as he tried to find his balance. Chiefs’ fans and sports bettors who bet on the Chiefs were collectively holding their breath as they watched Mahomes get to his feet looking very lost and hazy as his teammate and training staff worked to help him to the sideline. He was quickly ruled out of the rest of the game which seemed to spark a Browns’ comeback.

The Kansas City Chiefs had lost Mahomes to a concussion and were in danger of losing the game. Then their defense and Chad Henne, along with a gutsy call by Andy Reid kept their hopes of a Super Bowl repeat alive. Henne’s long run on third down set up a fourth and inches situation with the game on the line. Reid decided to go for it and put the ball into his back-up QB’s hands by calling a short pass designed to go to Tyreek Hill. Hill easily beat the defender on a quick out and Henne put the ball right on him for the first down.

This is beautiful. This is wild. This is Andy Reid. pic.twitter.com/1Nq1HxkSia

— Chiefs Daily (@chiefsdaily15) January 17, 2021

Keys to the Game

Defense wins championships — Pass Defense

The statement above used to hold more validity in the NFL than it does in today’s game, but it does still ring true. Neither of these teams are known for having a great defense, and yet, both of their defenses came up big so last week to help their team get to this game. Today’s NFL game can be dominated by a QB and a good offensive scheme, and both these teams have proven that all year. The defense that can win on third downs and make some impact plays on Sunday will be the defense that has a chance to play in Super Bowl LV.

Chiefs No. 14 pass defense

The Bills No. 3 ranked passing attack is what makes this team go, so you have to think the Chiefs No. 14 pass defense here will change up their looks and dare the Bills to run. The Chiefs haven’t gotten a lot of sacks (32) but they feature good inside-outside pressure with Chris Jones and Frank Clark in front of a versatile playmaking secondary led by Tyrann Mathieu. I expect some double coverage on Stefon Diggs and a variety of man and zone blitz-schemes from the Chiefs.

Send help when covering Stefon Diggs 🗣️ 😤 pic.twitter.com/L5fvKug4Zo

— PFF (@PFF) January 20, 2021

Bills’ No. 13 pass defense

The Chiefs led the league in passing this year and have relied on Mahomes’ arm more and more as the season went on. The Bills No. 13 pass defense has not been able to consistently pressure the QB this year, but they have had some big defensive scores as of late. The Chiefs focal point in their offense is TE Travis Kelce who was far-and-away the best TE this year and should pose huge problems to the Bills’ defense who has struggled to defend the position all year. The Bills secondary does not have the speed and skill to stay with the Chiefs playmakers when KC decides to spread them out with Hill, Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, and if Buffalo struggles to get pressure on Mahomes then he will find and get the ball to the open man.

Most receiving yards since 2018: Travis Kelce (4,428) pic.twitter.com/4FJXPA2Yco

— PFF (@PFF) January 20, 2021

X-Factors

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

The health of the Chiefs rookie-RB is an X-factor in this game. CEH has not played since Week 15 because of a hip and ankle injury, but he came back to practice last week. If Edwards-Helaire is 100% he will play a huge role in the game. He will provide balance in the Chiefs’ offense and help the Chiefs control the ball and keep it out of Allen’s hands. The dynamic first-year back has shown he is a capable runner this year rushing for 803 yards on a 4.4 yard per carry clip. What makes CEH special is his ability to catch the ball and make people miss in the open field — adding 297 receiving yards.

A lot of CEH slander on my TL. His rookie year he posted:

803 rushing yards
297 receiving yards
1100 scrimmage yards
36 receptions
5 TDs

All while sharing the backfield with Lev Bell and missing 3 games. You are NOT selling. You should be buying EVERYWHERE pic.twitter.com/wdUOcyauxz

— Fantasy Scouts 24/7 (@FFBallAllDay) January 20, 2021

Cole Beasley and John Brown

I think the Chiefs will have an extra defender paying attention to Diggs for most of the game which means one-on-one coverage and openings in the zone for Beasley and Brown. Allen needs to find a way to get both of his quick-receivers involved this week. Two weeks ago Brown did not record a catch and last week Beasly was the WR with zero catches. The duo need to help their QB out and rack up some YAC (yards after the catch), if their offense is going to score enough points to advance.

Highest-graded WRs in the slot:
1. Davante Adams – 91.5
2. Cole Beasley- 88.8
3. Allen Robinson II – 83.3
4. Robby Anderson – 82.1 pic.twitter.com/eOeBfXstE9

— PFF (@PFF) January 15, 2021

Coach Andy Reid

This is not coach Reid’s first rodeo in a Conference Championship, it’s actually his eighth. Reid is fifth all-time in playoff wins which makes him the most experienced, and best, coach left in the playoffs. In these games that the teams are evenly matched the coach matters more than most people think. Reid proved, once-again, he is ready for the moment with his fourth-down call last week while coaching in his 12 Divisional Round game. ‘Big Red,’ as they call him, seems to have all the answers and poise in the crucial moments — actually come to think about it, he always has.

Highest-graded WRs in the slot:
1. Davante Adams – 91.5
2. Cole Beasley- 88.8
3. Allen Robinson II – 83.3
4. Robby Anderson – 82.1 pic.twitter.com/eOeBfXstE9

— PFF (@PFF) January 15, 2021

Betting Breakdown

Willie Gay did not practice today.

Patrick Mahomes, Bashaud Breeland, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Rashad Fenton, and Sammy Watkins were limited.https://t.co/refMaIUM6R

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 20, 2021

The truth is the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team with the best coach left in the playoffs, and I find it hard to bet against them. Three points to the home team is considered a coin-toss but if Mahomes is 100% the Chiefs would win a seven game series easily. The great thing for the Bills is that this is football, and they only have to be better than their opponent once to advance in the playoffs. My analysis and gut tell me the Bills are more than capable of beating the Chiefs this Sunday.

With that said, experience goes a long way in the playoffs and the Chiefs have been to this exact point three years in a row now and they know what it takes to win in January.

Best
News
Today: MAHOMES WILL PRACTICE Wednesday #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/QQ1WJNnYtK

— Queen of the Chiefs Kingdom 👑 (@sweetdyoung) January 20, 2021

Against The Spread

Chiefs: 7-10 Chiefs ATS at Home: 3-6 Chiefs ATS as Favorite: 6-9

Bills: 12-6 Bills ATS Away: 4-3 Bills ATS as Underdog: 4-1

If you really want to bet the Bills then take the three points now and hope Mahomes and CHE do not play. I think the Bills would be at least 5½ point favorites if Mahomes does not play. It is a long shot but it could happen. Three points could look easy for the Chiefs, if Mahomes plays the entire game and looks 100% while doing it.

Moneyline

Smart money is on the Chiefs at -175, but like I said, Allen and the boys have the skill to keep up and overcome the Chiefs. The Bills have proved they can win in a multitude of ways, but I think the Bills lack of a running game could end up costing them a chance at the Super Bowl this year — then again when the playoffs started I picked the Bills to play the Packers in Super Bowl LV, and still feel it may happen.

Over/Under

The under seems to be trending in the playoffs and I think that trend continues. Both these defenses are playing their best football of the season and the offensive play calling seems to tighten up in the playoffs. Coaches do not want to take unnecessary risk early in the game to give their defenses the best shot to keep them in the game.

The @BuffaloBills defense came to PLAY in the Divisional Round. 💪 #NFLPlayoffs | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/8DmUjGGgB2

— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2021

Final Score Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 25

Going with my gut on this one. Everything tells me Chiefs should win this game, but something deep down in me is telling me the Bills make the plays to keep themselves in the game and win on a last-second field goal. Kansas City’s defense will struggle to stop the Bills on third down and in the Red-Zone which will haunt them. The Chiefs will settle for one-too-many field goals.