The Road to Imperfection continues through Week 12 as the New York Jets bring their record unblemished by a win back home to face the Miami Dolphins. While it’s not the largest of the NFL point spreads this week, it might represent one of the Jets’ best remaining chances to make a mark in the win column. Sports betting markets have the Dolphins as a touchdown favorite. We look at the Jets’ path to a single victory and the NFL odds offered at the sportsbook on whether the Jets go 0-16.
Flashback Miami: The 1-15 Dolphins
The Jets can take inspiration from the 2007 instance of this week’s opponent. After decades of success, the Miami Dolphins started to fall on hard times. The 2000s featured a five-year playoff drought that led to some questionable coaching hires, namely college star Nick Saban. In 2007, the Dolphins hired San Diego Chargers’ offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn the ship around.
By October of that season, it was pretty clear Miami was on its way to a sixth year with no postseason. The Dolphins lost their starting quarterback, went 0-8 into their bye week and proceeded to lose five more after that. They were on the cusp of tying the league’s worst-ever record and threatening to be the first team to go 0-16.
Then, in Week 15, they played host to the 4-9 Baltimore Ravens. Down by ten at the half, they certainly appeared to be headed for their record loss. But on the strength of kicker Jay Feely’s foot, they managed to push into overtime tied 16-all. The Dolphins survived a missed 44-yard field goal attempt by the Ravens, which set them up for one of their own. Instead, Miami quarterback Cleo Lemon launches an unthinkable 64-yard pass to Greg Camarillo for the game-winning touchdown.
Take heed, Jets! You’ve got to steal the win where you can.
The posted line for whether the Jets will go 0-16 is +150, down from +200 after they lost last week to the Chargers. After Miami, their five remaining opponents have a combined 31-19 record, with their best chance possibly being against New England in Week 17 where the Patriots will likely not be playing for a postseason spot.
Remember, the +150 implies odds of 40% and New York gets six more kicks at the can, though not all of equal chance.
The Road So Far…
|Opponent||Los Angeles Chargers|
|ATS Result||Jets cover by 4|
When it won: Their third cover of the season showed the powers of Adam Gase could not stop the power of Anthony Lynn — at least their power to blow point-spread covers. With four minutes left in the game, Joe Flacco threw a touchdown pass to Chris Herndon bringing them to within eight points.
The Chargers then went three and out, looking like they could figure out a way to somehow allow the Jets a tying score. The Jets couldn’t get any further than the Los Angeles 32 on what should have been their final drive attempt. Should have, because the Chargers still managed to turn the ball over with one more play for the Jets after giving up a purposeful safety.
The ending was a good reminder the Jets squandered one of their best opportunities for a win. At least they improve to 3-1 ATS in their last four.
|Final Score||Gase 1-Jets 0|
|ATS Result||Not good|
Bye Week: It’s hard to lose during your bye week, but not firing your coach as a 0-9 team going into your bye sends a unique message. While the management and ownership for the team have been in a strange political holding pattern for the past few years, there’s an understanding that widespread change is on its way.
Jets faithful have heard that song before, but it does raise the question how much support the ownership is giving to the practice of tanking games to improve draft position and leaving the dud coach to help that along. It’s a clear message they’re not interested in trying out anyone else currently in their coaching ranks.
|Opponent||New England Patriots|
|ATS Result||Jets cover by 6|
Finally: You did it, Jets — a sweat-free, wire-to-wire point-spread cover!
They carried a ten-point lead into the locker room at the half and fought to keep it in the third quarter. After weeks of failed bets, sharps could finally feel good about taking points with New York, even laughing off the fourth-quarter interception they threw that set up the Patriots’ tying touchdown.
Of course, New England went on to move the ball 45 yards in as many seconds, setting up their game-winning 51-yard field goal, and sending the Jets into their bye week with an 0-9 record.
|Opponent||Kansas City Chiefs|
|ATS Result||Chiefs cover by 6|
When it died: Causing a splash when it opened, the point spread between the Jets and the Chiefs ranked in the top ten largest chalk in the Super-Bowl era. Wiseguys grabbed the +21 right away, with the closing number split between widely-available +19½ or +20s.
Sure enough, New York trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. While the Chiefs seemed content to experiment with new plays instead of hanging at least 30 on their opponent, these were still the Jets. On a casual third and five, Patrick Mahomes flung a 40-yard pass to Tyreek Hill that broke CB Blessuan Austin’s ankles, as Hill scooted into the end zone.
Afterward the Jets went three and out, the Chiefs obliterated over seven minutes of clock on a 12-play drive which ended on the Jets’ 34, not with a field goal attempt, but rather an failed pass attempt to leave New York with a shred of dignity. Even with decent field position and two remaining timeouts, the Jets ran three plays with no hurry-up offense or any effort to scrape out a garbage-time touchdown to cover the number.
With a 26-point difference, the Jets became only the third team ever to fail covering a 20+ point spread. (It’s an exclusive club with the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 1991 Indianapolis Colts.)
|ATS Result||Jets cover by 1½|
When it died: It didn’t die. The Jets covered! Carrying a 10-0 lead late into the first half, the Jets appeared to at least tease an upset. Had Buffalo swapped some of its half dozen field goals for touchdowns, or even hit paydirt on the other two missed field-goal attempts, the final would have been closer to 24-10 or 30-10. It was still a sweat for Jets’ backers, as Buffalo, up five and driving as the clock approached the two-minute warning, settled for a field goal after being stuffed on a third and two at the Jets’ 22.
|ATS Result||Dolphins cover by 14|
When it died: The Jets’ strategy to defeat the Dolphins by punting ten times in a game proved to be ineffective. Miami scored its second touchdown early in the second quarter and never looked back. The Jets ran a total of four second-half offensive plays in Miami territory, and one of those was a missed field goal from 55 yards.
|ATS Result||Cardinals cover by 13|
When it died: In a low-scoring affair, the Jets managed a third-quarter touchdown to Jamison Crowder to pull within seven points. As the third wound down, Arizona tacked on another touchdown, followed by another with 8:35 left in the game. A 12-play drive which crashed out on the Cardinals’ 35 with about five minutes remaining ended the Jets’ efforts.
|ATS Result||Broncos cover by 10|
When it died: Not only were they favored — no really, how badly do the oddsmakers think of the Broncos? — but they even covered the number for an entire quarter. The Jets’ largest offensive effort so far this season also resulted in a fourth-quarter lead over these Broncos. What would have been a push lasted only a few minutes though, as Denver took back the lead with a field goal at 3:08, and then picking up an insurance touchdown past the two-minute warning off two stalled Jets’ drives.
|ATS Result||Colts cover by 16½|
When it died: Mid-way through the second quarter, the Colts tacked on a field goal to establish a 13-point lead which only grew as the Jets failed to score another point. Any thoughts of a miracle backdoor cover were dismissed by an Indianapolis Pick-Six at the end of the third quarter.
|Opponent||San Francisco 49ers|
|ATS Result||49ers cover by 11|
When it died: The Niners pulled to a 14-3 lead with a mid second-quarter touchdown, covering the spread from that point on. New York’s garbage-time score at the end left only 1:23 on the clock and an 18-point deficit. (They didn’t even attempt an on-side kick.)
|ATS Result||Bills cover by 3½|
When it died: Buffalo covered the number from the time they scored their first touchdown at 5:38 in the first quarter. After scoring a garbage-time touchdown to pull within 10 points, the clock left only 0:54 in the game. The Jets’ onside kick was unsuccessful.
Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds.