New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: Week 15 Game Analysis

Week 15 sport betting action sees the conclusion of this AFC East series as the New England Patriots travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins. The sportsbook made a huge adjustment since their season opener, as NFL point spreads don’t often move ten points. Still, of all the NFL matchups this week, this one boasts the lowest point spread.

Betting Lines

Head-to-Head

So different were the prevailing opinions on these teams back on opening Kickoff Sunday in Week 1. The new-look Patriots played host to the Miami Dolphins and laid better than a touchdown. They covered, winning 21-11. While the total is the same on that day at 41½, the point spread has swung nearly 10 points in favor of the Fish for this Sunday’s rematch.

New England Patriots

Betting Record

Next game: vs Buffalo

Last Game

They might benefit from the extra rest having played last Thursday, but the New England Patriots didn’t look ready on a short week when they took a drubbing from the Los Angeles Rams. Bettors backed the Patriots as 6½-point underdogs, taking the point spread down to 4½ before some money came for the Rams. Los Angeles easily cleared the closing five-point spread, winning 24-3 in a game where the over bets were DOA. The total saw split betting action and closed at 43½.

Any chance New England had to hang tough and cover the number was blown open early in the second quarter when Rams’ linebacker Kenny Young snatched a pick and made a 79-yard house call. Making it 17-0, the game deflated from there and New England managed a mercy 29-yard field goal in the first half, its only score to avoid the shut out. The Patriots went 0-3 on fourth down.

Miami Dolphins

Betting Record

Next game: at Las Vegas

Last Game

The Miami Dolphins performed a valuable service to the football-watching world last Sunday when they provided two hours of tape on how you can’t beat the Kansas City Chiefs. They weren’t expected to, of course, and were lined as 7½-point underdogs. Bettors largely backed the Dolphins at that price, along with betting over the total of 49, taking it up to a close of 51½.

Miami put on a defensive clinic, with three interceptions — on Patrick Mahomes to whom that generally doesn’t happen — and a 30-yard sack. The Dolphins did allow a safety and a punt return for a touchdown, which ultimately gave the Chiefs a 33-27 win. Fortunately for the market that backed the over and the Fish, they covered, electing to kick a field goal down ten points with just 0:16 remaining (instead of the fourth-down desperation end-zone try) — final score, 33-27.

Betting on the Game

Point Spread

Oddsmakers installed Miami as a field-goal favorite, and early bettors jumped on the Patriots. New England at +3 was gone sometime Monday before lunch, but once the line dropped to two, bets came back in the Dolphins favor. It’s now -2½ flat, though the juice moved slightly at that number.

Given how decisively early markets took the points with the Patriots, it doesn’t seem likely the +3 will be back without some NFL news or injury information driving it. In that regard, Miami has a bunch of injury issues they’re dealing with which will only start to get clarified after the first or second practice this week.

Moneyline

That same move on the Pats came on the moneyline at the open as well. Opening at +125, the same move drove those odds to +115. At which point, someone thought -135 was a good price for the Dolphins, enough to knock it back up a nickel to the current -140.

Over/Under

Take short-term trends for the small samples they are, but this season’s over bettors on these teams haven’t come away with good feelings. (They’re a combined 9-17 to the under.) No surprise the opening total of 42½ took money to the under.

Around the same time the point spread dropped a half point, so too did this total shed one and is currently 41½.