Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one step away from reaching Super Bowl LV! Standing in their way, however, are Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
Can the Bucs live up to their preseason status as one of the top online betting Super Bowl favorites or will Green Bay take care of business at home as the top-seeded team in the NFC and sportsbook betting home favorite?
With both teams going all out to pick up a victory in this win-or-go-home matchup, let’s find out why the Bucs and Packers could both advance. First though, let’s look at the NFL Playoff Odds for both conference championship clashes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) at Green Bay Packers
When: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
Where: Lambeau Field
NFL Odds: Green Bay -3
Moneyline: Buccaneers +155/Packers -175
Why The Buccaneers Will Win
There are a bunch of good reasons to believe Brady and the Buccaneers (10-8 ATS, 10-8 O/U) will win the NFC Championship Game.
Tampa Bay has been hot for nearly two months, winning six straight games.
The Bucs have a dangerous offense that finished the regular season ranked seventh overall, second in passing, and a stellar third in scoring (30.8 ppg). Tampa Bay has scored at least 31 points in five straight games while topping the 40-point plateau twice along the way.
Then, there’s the fact that the Buccaneers also have a good defense that closed out the regular season ranked sixth overall, first against the run, and eighth in points allowed (22.2 ppg).
Last, but not least, Tampa Bay has gone a respectable 5-5 ATS in 10 road dates and encouraging 3-1 ATS in four games as an underdog while beating the brakes off the Packers 38-10 at home in Week 6 to cover the spread as a 3-point underdog.
Why The Buccaneers Won’t Win
There are also some good reasons to believe this is where Tampa Bay’s season will come to an abrupt halt. The Buccaneers finished 28th in rushing and although they’ve gotten some decent contributions recently from Leonard Fournette, Green Bay has pretty much shut down Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, and Cam Akers in their last three games.
Then, there’s the fact that the Bucs rank 21st against the pass and are going to face arguably the best quarterback in the game today in Aaron Rodgers.
Some cautionary facts. Each of Tampa Bay’s last four regular-season wins came against teams with losing records. Finally, Tom Brady is coming off a divisional round performance where he was able to hook up with wide receivers Mike Evans and Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski only once apiece last weekend.
Here is a look at the current odds to win Super Bowl LV.
Why The Packers Are the Pick
The Packers (11-6 ATS, 10-7 O/U) have plenty of momentum going as they ride the wave of a seven-game winning streak into the NFC Championship. Green Bay also has an elite offense that finished the regular season ranked fifth overall, ninth in passing, eighth in rushing and first in scoring (31.8 ppg).
Aaron Rodgers and company have scored at least 32 points in three consecutive games and made the LA Rams’ No. 1 overall defense look like a bunch of overmatched Pop Warner adolescents last weekend. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in seven of its last eight games while scoring 30 or more a stunning 13 times. The 37-year-old Rodgers has played like he’s a decade younger by passing for 4,299 yards with a league-leading 48 TD passes and five interceptions.
Then, there’s the fact that the Packers have a good if underrated defense. Green Bay finished the regular season ranked ninth overall and seventh against the pass, although they did finish in the middle of the pack against the run and in points allowed (23.1 ppg). The Packers have limited four straight opponents to 18 points or less.
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Why Green Bay Goes Home Packing
There are also some good reasons to believe the Packers will fall to the Bucs. Green Bay was smacked around in its 38-10 road loss against Tampa Bay in Week 6. The Packers also finished the regular season ranked a modest 13th against the run and an identical 13th in points allowed (23.1 ppg). Last, but not least, the Packers will have to get past a quarterback in Brady that many believe is the greatest signal-caller in league history and one that has gone a stupendous 32-11 in 43 career playoff games.
Who’s Advancing and Who’s Going Home?
I try to envision Tampa Bay getting the road win but can’t see it happening. Green Bay’s defense is absolutely playing lights out and the Packers have what I believe is a huge edge at quarterback.
The Packers have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games and consistent 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of January.
The Home team in this NFC rivalry has gone 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and I believe the Packers are the easy pick to win, and cover the spread as a field- goal home favorite.
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