Game: Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Location: Levi Stadium
Time: Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/ Under||Team Total|
All of a sudden, the NFC’s Los Angeles Rams have the fourth-best odds to win the conference at +700. The Rams are also in the thick of the Super Bowl Odds conversation, sporting a respectable +1700 moneyline. Current NFL odds list L.A. as 3½-point road favorites, against NFC West rival San Francisco.
Week 6 marks the first game that the 49ers are underdogs, and it’s at home. That’s how far the mighty 49ers have fallen, literally losing favor with the NFL gambling gods. San Fran has lost its last two games, and the outlook is bleak against a charging Rams team on Sunday. Let’s break down the Rams at 49ers matchup and see what’s what.
Los Angeles Rams
|Team||Record||ATS||ATS Home||ATS Away||ATS Fave||O/U|
Next game: Vs Bears
30-10 win at Washington
The Rams entered FedEx Field as 7½ -point favorites against the Football Team. L.A. dominated time of possession by more than 11 minutes, and had twice as many first downs as Washington (20-10). The Rams beat the Football Team into the dirt.
Washington only converted 2-of-13 third-down opportunities, and the LA defense held the offense to a paltry 108 total yards. DE Aaron Donald and LB Troy Reeder tore through Washington’s offense like they were King Kong and Godzilla. Donald tallied four sacks and a forced fumble, while Reeder recorded three sacks and 10 total tackles while filling in for the injured Micah Kiser.
Offensively, the Rams gashed the Football Team for 429 total yards. QB Jared Goff completed 21-of-30 passes for 309 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Goff also ran in for a TD, and the most recent NFL MVP odds place him as an interesting middling longshot at +5000. The Rams smashed the WFT.
Los Angeles seems to be for real and came within a hair’s breadth of being 5-0. It’s difficult to imagine a banged-up, demoralized 49ers team being much more than a speed bump for the Rams.
San Francisco 49ers
|Team||Record||ATS||ATS Home||ATS Away||ATS Dog||O/U|
Next game: At Patriots
43-17 loss vs Dolphins
The 49ers had a tough day at the office vs. the Dolphins in Week 5. Miami beat the heck out of San Francisco from start to finish. The Dolphins built an astounding 30-7 halftime lead, and in the end, the Niners barely escaped with a shred of pride.
San Fran’s prodigal son Jimmy Garoppolo returned as starting quarterback, but that didn’t last. Miami’s D chased Garoppol following two picks, a 15.7 first-half QB rating, and overall dismal performance. Fill-in C.J. Beathard didn’t fare a heck of a lot better, completing 9-of-18 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown.
RB Raheem Mostert was the lone bright spot for the SF offense, rushing for 90 yards on 11 carries. Mostert averaged 8.2 YPC, but was underutilized due to the huge deficit. Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick straight lit San Francisco up, firing three touchdowns on 22-of-28 passing, producing a 154.5 passer rating. The Niners are clearly hurting on both sides of the ball.
A loss Sunday would give SF more defeats than it had in the 2019 regular season and make it 0-4 at home in 2020.
Betting on the Game
Los Angeles must be licking its chops, salivating over this matchup against a nearly crippled Niners squad. Expect Goff to post numbers that are similar or superior to Fitzpatrick’s, against a shaky and depleted San Francisco secondary. Star CB Richard Sherman (calf) suffered a setback in his recovery, and appears unlikely to play. Sherman’s presence would have been welcomed with both arms by San Francisco.
The Rams’ defense is morphing into a 2020 monster, just in time for Halloween season. The bandaged San Francisco offense that takes the field will have a tough time getting anything going against L.A. on Sunday. The Rams should cover the spread easily here.
The Rams’ -190 moneyline is reasonable, and should yield modest gains for those of you who choose to click confirm. Divisional games always have the potential to be tricky, but L.A. is firing on all cylinders and S.F. is disheveled. Folks who have bet on the Rams’ moneyline this season have won 80% of the time (almost 100%).
PS- The 49ers’ only two wins this season came in MetLife Stadium, to NY teams that are a combined 0-10.
The Dolphins scored 43 points on their own last week vs the 49ers, so 51+ points is the right call. San Francisco’s defense is reeling, and Goff’s gang will kick them while they’re down. Furthermore, a defensive TD might be in the cards for L.A. with the kind of havoc that the Rams’ D is causing lately. Mostert will keep SF in the game early with some bullish running, but the Rams will steadily outdistance them.
Prediction: Rams 38, 49ers 22