Seahawks vs Bills: Week 9 Game Analysis

Seattle vs Buffalo Betting Lines

Seattle Seahawks

Betting Record

Next game: at Rams

Last Game

Seattle improved to 6-1 as it beat the 49ers at home, 37-27. Russell Wilson returned to his MVP form as he completed 27 of his 37 passes for 261 yards and four touchdowns. DK Metcalf caught 12 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns and the Seahawks picked up 101 yards on the ground on 28 carries. It was a rough day for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo against the worst pass defense in the league. He completed 11 of 16 passes for 84 yards and an interception before leaving in the third quarter with an ankle injury. In his stead, Nick Mullens completed 18 of 25 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns. Garoppolo has struggled with injuries this year, and the 49ers have been decimated by injuries all season.

Stats Pack

Russell Wilson has thrown 26 touchdown passes this season. He’s on pace for 59, which would be the most passing touchdowns in one season in NFL history. Wilson and the Seahawks’ passing offense have been nothing short of excellent this year. It is a huge reason they’re averaging 34.3 points per game, which is the best such mark in the NFL. It’s almost ten points per game more than their 2019 average of 24.7. The Seahawks sport one of the best offenses in recent memory.

Trends

The Seahawks blitzed on more than half of the 49ers dropbacks on Sunday night after averaging a 24 percent rate this season. As a result, the league’s worst passing defense held their opponent to under 300 passing yards for the first time this season. Perhaps the Seahawks will continue this trend against the Bills, especially with Jamal Adams’ imminent return.

Buffalo Bills

Betting Record

Next game: at Cardinals

Last Game

The Bills snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Patriots, as they won 24-21 in Buffalo. The Bills, courtesy of DT Justin Zimmer, forced a Cam Newton fumble on the Patriots final drive to seal the victory. The Bills held Newton to 174 passing yards, improved to 6-2 and currently lead the AFC East by 2½ games. Josh Allen didn’t have his best game of the year, completing 11 of 18 passes for 154 yards and an interception, along with a rushing touchdown. Instead, the Bills won this game on the ground, picking up 190 yards on 38 carries. Devin Singletary picked up 86 yards on 14 carries while rookie Zach Moss had his best game as a pro. The Bills RB ran for 81 yards on 14 carries with two touchdowns. Buffalo scored its most points in the win since Week 5.

Stats Pack

Allen failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second game in a row on Sunday, it’s the first time that’s happened since his rookie season in 2018. He had an excellent opening four weeks to the season in which he threw for 331 yards per game along with 12 touchdown passes and one interception. He garnered some serious MVP hype and doubters of his consistency were silenced. However, Allen has seriously slowed down in the last four weeks. He’s averaged 211.5 yards per game and thrown for as many touchdowns as interceptions (4). Look for him to get on track against a challenged Seahawks passing defense.

The Bills got a huge boost from their running game on Sunday, which has been below average this season. They rank 20th in both rushing yards per game (108.6) and rushing yards per attempt (4.1). In the past two weeks though, they’ve picked up 316 yards on the ground on 65 attempts, good for 158 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. But, Seattle’s rushing defense has been stout, as they’ve only allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Trends

Despite their 6-2 record this season, the Bills have allowed one more point than they’ve scored so far this year. This speaks more to their offensive issues than defensive woes. They’ve only managed to scored 18.8 points per game in their last four games and they rank 19th in the league. In Week 7, they were only able to put 18 points on the Jets, on six field goals from Tyler Bass. The Jets are currently 0-8 and have allowed 29.8 points per game. The Bills offense has certainly struggled, but look for them to try to exploit Seattle’s porous pass defense to get back on track.

Betting on the Game

Point Spread: Seahawks -2½

The Seahawks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road while Buffalo has lost their last four games ATS. Buffalo’s offense has struggled in the past few weeks, as they’ve only scored 7 touchdowns in their last 4 games and have averaged 18.8 points per game in that time span. They may be able to get things going against a Seattle defense that has allowed 28.4 points per game, but it will be a tough task for the Bills to stop Seattle’s offense. Seattle ranks first in points per game, yards per play, third in yards per game and yards per passing attempt, and seventh in yards per rush attempt.

Moneyline: Seahawks -150 | Bills +130

Seattle is 10-3 SU on the road in their last 13 games and Bills Mafia won’t be hounding them this week. It’s certainly hard to bet against a team with arguably the NFL’s best quarterback, but they are facing a passing defense, in Buffalo, that has only allowed 224 yards per game. After Seattle’s success with the blitz last week, it will be interesting to see if they’ll put Allen under a lot of pressure this Sunday to make up for their shortcomings.

Over/Under: 53½ Points

The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in all of their games this season and they shouldn’t have too many problems against the Bills. The Bills have allowed the seventh most rushing yards this year and in the five games they’ve played against teams with winning records this year, they’ve allowed 30.2 points per game. With the Bills recent offensive struggles, however, this over is certainly not a guarantee. But, the Bills should adjust their game plan according to the fact that Seattle is allowing a league worst 358.7 passing yards per game. Combined, the over has hit in 11 of these teams 15 games this season.