Bittersweet is the key word for this week’s NFL Conference Championships as the season nears the end, but Barry’s Big Bet for your NFL Pick of the Week should reverse a record-setting trend for NFL online betting.
Last week we took a hit when Lamar Jackson threw that 14-point turnaround pick-6 in the Buffalo Bills end zone. I still think the Baltimore Ravens upside is bigger than the Bills, but Buffalo got it done with what teams can’t give up to opponents in the NFL – turnovers!
No Bias. No BS! No Bills!!
Your NFL Pick of the Week does not have anything against the Bills, even though you may think that based on this. Barry’s Big Bet this week has nothing to do with the opponent but more to do with the consistent winning ways Kansas City has demonstrated no matter how many points they win by.
The Chiefs played at Buffalo in week 6 this year and won 26-17. And this is a much more confident team that has improved their defense since then. The Bills have demonstrated that they belong here. This game might be single-digit close but not within a field goal, like the online sportsbook has decided.
The current Super Bowl odds are +190 for the Chiefs and +300 for the Bills. The Kansas City odds will go down immensely after this NFL Pick of the Week wins.
Barry’s Big Bet Online Sportsbook Odds at BetUS.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over/Under Total 54
Kansas City Against The Spread
You have surely been hearing how the Chiefs have been winning games by the smallest of margins. And that it is just a matter of time until they make one mistake to lose one of these. The problem with that theory is that this team is solely focused on winning. They could care less about how many they win by. Unlike those of us who bet on NFL every week.
One of the records Andy Reid has coached them to is one that shows how bad they want to win every game. They have now won eight games in a row by six points or less, an all-time NFL record. Instead of focusing on the points try to focus on how hard it is to keep winning in the NFL.
Just look at last week’s win over the Cleveland Browns that had a 22-17 final but was not near that close. The Chiefs actually dominated that game with a 438-311 total yards drubbing and with Harrison Butker missing a chip shot field goal and an extra point. They also lost Patrick Mahomes midway through the third quarter and had to go with Chad Henne who threw an interception in the short time he was in.
Mahomes and Travis Kelce hadn’t played in 21 days after not playing in the final regular season game and having a bye week as the #1 AFC Conference seed. Those guys looked sharp as hell, and they appear to be peaking right now as long as Mahomes passes concussion protocol.
Patrick Mahomes Concussion
This is an updated article, and Mahomes has already passed most of the concussion steps making his ability to play highly probable. As you can see on the tape, it wasn’t even a huge head hit or something to cause major concern, and the drama surrounding it just hypes the game more. Although, as we’ve learned from Coach T, the kind of concussion Mahomes seemed to suffer can be the worst kind.
Bills to Pay
The Bills do have one of the brightest quarterbacks in the NFL. The upside potential is obviously there this year for Josh Allen. The addition of Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL in passing yards and receptions, made a monumental difference in the Bills’ success. And in Allen’s development as a QB.
The problem won’t be Josh Allen so much as it will be their running game. There is an old saying that goes, “If you want to dance, you gotta pay the fiddler.” I liken that to, “you need to establish the run to pass the ball effectively.” Especially in these NFL Championship games.
Where’s The Beef…and the Offense?
You may hear the Bills Mafia peeps talking about holding the Ravens to three points last week. But that isn’t what you should be focusing on. You should be focusing on the fact that the Bills only scored 17 points.
The Ravens outgained the Bills in total yards 340-220. You heard that right. Buffalo only had 220 total yards. 188 passing yards and a paltry 32 yards on the ground. Made, are not Super Bowl Champions, with any kind of statistics like this. Unless you were the 1985 Chicago Bears or the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Buffalo is nowhere close to either!
The Pick of the Week for Barry’s Big Bet
The Kansas City Chiefs -3 is the NFL Pick of the Week for Barry’s Big Bet in the NFL Championship Playoffs week!
Final Score Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs 38
Buffalo Bills 27