Welcome back to Barry’s Big Bet where you will always get the single best NFL Pick of the Week based on online sportsbook odds that you can bet online at BetUS.com. These NFL odds should be up-to-date as this is updated Saturday night to make sure the betting line quoted is the betting line toted.
Last Week’s Results
That said, it was just a matter of time before I gave you a losing Pick of the Week, because regression to the mean is real. That is what finally happened to Barry’s Big Bet Week 10 when the second loss of the year was experienced. This brings our NFL betting season to a 7-2 record against the spread (ATS) for the year.
I gave you the Seattle Seahawks +2½ last week traveling to play the Los Angeles Rams and I may have underestimated the week traveling, Los Angeles’ home field edge or the fact that eventually Mr. Unlimited, Russell Wilson, may wear down from carrying his team for so many weeks.
I have a simple process, especially when I am wrong or have a setback. Live. Learn. Apply what you learned. Move forward as a better or more educated person.
Let’s apply one of life’s many lessons to a quarterback I was skeptical about for this pick, 11 weeks in already if you can believe it, that is now primed and ready to win your NFL betting in Week 11.
Overview of Week 11 Barry’s Big Bet
I must admit I was a little skeptical to jump on the Tua Tagovailoa Train with every announcer and podcaster with an audience anointing him the King of the rookie class. This was after one victory that they were out-gained by over 300 yards against the Los Angeles Rams, and people were already saying with Tua they could win the AFC Conference.
Drew Lock is another QB that even national sports personalities were jumping on his bandwagon with abandon. He had his first decent week by stats a few weeks ago, but a 3rd grader could read and analyze the information that concluded this happened in garbage time or what I like to call scrub time.
Miami Dolphins (6-3) -3½ at Denver Broncos (3-6).
Over/Under Total 46.
Denver Broncos’ Mediocrity
The Broncos have had some problems that they have overcome in the short term with injuries, so i don’t want to call them the Jets yet. But in my NFL Power Rankings Week 11, I have Denver 29 out of 32 teams. And everybody knows the Adam Gase coached team that number 32 is. Speaking of New Yuck, you can bet the Jets go 0-16 at BetUS.
The last four weeks has been an easy play for rushing offenses with the Broncos defense giving up 548 yards running to opponents at an alarming 4.77 yards per carry. That is a losing situation to get into for a team that usually gets down a few touchdowns. The opponent can too easily run the ball, run out the clock and then run their mouth about how bad they beat you.
Miami Dolphins’ Rise and Adjustments
Running back Myles Gaskin was developing into a consistent and fine runner when he was injured for multiple weeks, but the Dolphins have successfully moved rookie Salvon Ahmed into that position. This should bode well to help setup Tua Tagovailoa on the passing end as well and lock in this Pick of the Week for Barry’s Big Bet.
The Tua rise has been quicker in the minds of some more than others, and after he had his second win it seemed that every yahoo, bumpkin and google user was declaring Tua a late runner for NFL Rookie of the Year. They were also declaring the Dolphins ready to be NFL playoff bound with Super Bowl aspirations.
Now that Miami has gone 3-0 under the Tuatelage of Tagovailoa, I recognize that he is a quarterback that can direct an NFL team to wins. Their Super Bowl Odds have even come down to 25/1, but that isn’t near high enough for you to consider.
The Final Countdown to Tua Time
There are so many aspects of this game that I would need 10 pages to go into on why Barry’s Big Bet Week 11 is strong. I didn’t go into detail about the superior defense that the Dolphins have this year which many consider to be in the top 4 in the NFL. I didn’t go into the Broncos ranking in the bottom 10 in almost every offensive and defensive category in the NFL.
Just understand that the Dolphins are on their way to becoming real and Denver is on the way to becoming really bad if they aren’t already there.
The Pick of the Week for Barry’s Big Bet
Confidently tee up the Miami Dolphins -3½. This Denver Broncos team may be among the worst they’ve ever had. John Elway has done a terrible job picking quarterbacks. Just because you are a hall-of-famer at something doesn’t mean you know who else has a chance at it.