Other betting advice on the sportsbook odds on Kansas City playing Tampa Bay seems to go against the opinion stated here. But Barry’s Big Bet is supported by many facts and statistics. You will also be privy to inside information on sportsbook betting trends telling you who the public is betting, where the betting line is moving and what it means for you.
You’re going to hear a lot of people saying that you can’t give Tom Brady three or more points in the Super Bowl and cover. But that is hogwash. Did you know that Patrick Mahomes averages 31 points a game in his losses? And Tom Brady averages less than that in his wins?
Tampa Bay will probably try to run the ball successfully so that they can control the clock and keep it out of Mahomes’ hands. The problem is that the Bucs don’t have a superior rushing game. The upside is that the Chiefs gave up the eighth most rushing yards in the NFL regular season per game against the run.
We hit big for your NFL bets on the Conference Championship Week. Barry’s Big Bet picks the same team this week: the Kansas City Chiefs!
Kansas City Chiefs -3½ (-105) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ (-115)
Over/Under Total – 56
Super Bowl Betting Trends
As far as public point spread betting goes, it has been nearly even on both sides. 52% of wagers are on the Chiefs. 53% of the volume is laying the points. But he moneyline has been on the Buccaneers, with 65% of the bets and volume on them. The total is unsurprisingly on the over with 73% of the bets and 72% of the money volume.
The odds opened up with the Chiefs at -3 (-125). It’s hard to come off the important number three. And it is a little surprising they have, with the betting being so equal on both sides. For the latest betting news, the BetUS Locker Room has your information and betting tips needed constantly!
Tom Brady is Slowing Down
If you look at Tom Brady’s play in the playoffs this year it has been a little bit shoddy. His completion percentage is down and he served up three interceptions in the last two quarters played. Maybe the season is too long for him now.
Brady has only completed 55% of his passes in the playoffs, with seven touchdown passes and three interceptions. He is averaging 286.67 yards passing a game. His QB rating dropped to 90.8 from the 102.2 he had in the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes Kaboom
With the firepower Kansas City blasts out of Mahomes’ cannon they will be putting up plenty of points. The Buccaneers could find themselves needing to score from behind. This will force Brady to throw the ball more than they planned. He has shown that causes problems, resulting in turnovers. This is where Kansas City is sure to get multiple turnovers, which spells disaster for Tampa.
Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to blitz and Mahomes loves it, too! He is the best in the NFL against blitzes, and Tampa Bay will not be able to get away from doing it in the attack defense they run. They will definitely try to learn from the last time they met. But the bottom line is that the Chiefs are going to have a lot of game breaking plays.
Every Day KC is Shuffling
A lot has also been made about the Chiefs offensive line and their reshuffling issues. But they haven’t had their best OL Mitchell Schwartz since Week 6 and seem to be doing fine. Kansas City is used to this reshuffling lineman thing. So much so that Las Vegas casinos are fighting to get these boys working at the blackjack tables in the offseason. And heck, offensive line coach Andy Heck cross-trains these beasts to prepare for diversity anyway.
The Chiefs will figure out how to protect Patrick Mahomes. When they miss a block, he is a guy that can scramble away from whoever’s chasing him anyway. They have allowed the NFL’s fifth fewest sacks this year (24), while having the third most passing attempts. So pick another area to sweat!
Pick Your Poison
These two teams played earlier in the year, and Tyreek Hill went bonkers on them. Hill had 203 yards in the first quarter, and a career best 13 catches for 239 yards and three touchdowns. If they try to concentrate on Hill, they are going to leave Travis Kelce, the best tight end in the NFL, open.
You can expect Kelce to have a big game. You should definitely bet the NFL props at BetUS on the Over for Kelce in passing yards, receptions and whatever else they have in their hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets.
The Buccaneers tight end defense is in the bottom ten, and Kelce didn’t miss any of his eight targets for 82 yards in their game Week 12. In the NFC Championship game two weeks ago, the Packers’ tight ends caught seven of the seven targets for 50 yards and a touchdown.