A prime chance to play spoiler in NFL matchups this week as the New Orleans Saints host the road-dog Atlanta Falcons. Betting online brought heavy support for the Falcons at the sportsbook. We take a look at the teams and offer you some NFL picks as Atlanta looks for a fight against division rival New Orleans.
|Game: Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
The Falcons come in off their bye week. They were last seen toying with an opposing quarterback who had to wear a wristband in order to keep his plays straight in an NFL Week 9 matchup. Atlanta handed the Denver Broncos a 34-27 loss that wasn’t nearly as close as the final suggests. They covered the 4½-point spread supported by the market from an open of four. The Broncos managed enough garbage-time offense to drive the game well over the total of 50.
New Orleans laid ten points last week as they hosted the San Francisco 49ers in an NFL week 10 matchup. Bettors took them from nine-point faves up, and considered it a terrible play in the first half when they went down 0-10. In a bizarre game that included Jameis Winston filling in for Drew Brees who left after his lung collapsed, and two muffed punts leading to a point-spread cover, the Saints won with a final of 27-13. The total came nowhere near the middle set up by the market around the 49-50 range.
Falcons vs Saints Week 11 Betting Picks: NFL Betting Lines
Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons +170 (3-6) | New Orleans Saints -200 (7-2)
Not surprisingly, money has come in on the Falcons because the Saints are in disarray. The loss of Drew Brees is obvious but they’ll likely be coming in short in their backfield. (For what it’s worth, RB Alvin Kamara says he’s fine and will go, but is playing through the same foot that’s been injured for weeks.)
Our online betting dollars will go on the underdog here at +170, expecting that number to continue going down.
Pick: Atlanta to win
Point Spread: Atlanta Falcons +4 (4-5) | New Orleans Saints -4 (4-5)
Bettors also took the Falcons down from the opening point spread of +6 to its current +4. If we like the Falcons straight up, taking the four points is the obvious play but believe that number will continue to fall. So get it before it does.
Pick: Atlanta +4
Over/Under 52 points
Now that the Saints have named Taysom Hill as their starting QB, the total which peaked at 52 has come back down again to 50. While we missed the best of the number, we’d have to play under 50 here with the expectation it will only continue to go down. Hill’s start does give much more support for the above moneyline and ATS bets though.
We've obtained the Saints' playbook for Taysom Hill's start at quarterback pic.twitter.com/OvKPJqTXie
— Pick Six Podcast (@picksixpod) November 20, 2020
Pick: Over 52
Falcons vs Saints Week 11 Betting Picks Final Score: Atlanta 28, New Orleans 24