The Philadelphia Eagles visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football, trying to get their first win of the season. The Eagles didn’t lose last week, but their 23-23 tie at home against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals felt like a loss. The 49ers played each of their last two games in New Jersey, first against the Jets and then against the Giants. They won both games, but suffered a ton of injuries on what they felt was a terrible synthetic surface at MetLife Stadium. They will be happy to return home. Let’s see what the betting landscape is for this Eagles vs 49ers matchup.
|Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
Time: 8:20 PM ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
Moneyline: 49ers -330 (2-1) | Eagles +264 (0-3)
San Francisco is 15-5 straight up in its last 20 games. Carson Wentz was 29 of 47 for 225 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions against the Cincinnati Bengals. Leading receivers Greg Ward and Zach Ertz did not have more than 72 yards receiving, an indication of how short the Eagles’ passing game is because of their flawed offensive line, which allowed three sacks to the Bengals this past weekend. The Eagles’ offensive line is missing multiple players who were supposed to be Week 1 starters.
Even though the 49ers are missing pass rushers Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas, they still have a lot of depth and strength on their front seven. The Eagles have not been able to outplay a series of mediocre defenses: Washington, the Rams, and the Bengals. The 49ers will easily be the best defense they have seen. The 49ers don’t have to do a lot on offense. Their defense can shut down the Eagles and win this game straight up. You can question if the Niners will score enough to win, but it’s very hard to see how Philadelphia is going to manage enough offense to prevail in any possible circumstance.
Pick: 49ers to win
Point Spread: 49ers -7 (2-1) | Eagles +7 (0-3)
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in the sportsbook. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five games. The 49ers have been hit very, very hard by injuries in each of the past two weeks, and yet they have won those two games by an average of 22.5 points. They beat the Jets by 18 and the Giants by 27, in spite of not having several highly important starters available. One can rightly note that the Jets and Giants are terrible football teams.
Well, guess what? The Eagles are terrible as well.
They couldn’t beat the winless Bengals at home. They couldn’t beat the Washington Football Team, which lost its next two games after beating the Eagles in Week 1. Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz has badly struggled this season. Part of his struggles come from not having his best offensive linemen in front of him. The Eagles aren’t creating the right down-and-distance situations in which they will succeed. However, Wentz is also missing some open receivers and not making good reads when plays begin. He is rattled, and that translates into inconsistency.
Bad Eagles, Bad
A good point of comparison for the Eagles, after their 23-23 home tie against the Bengals, is Cincinnati. The Bengals don’t have an especially good defense. They allowed 35 points to the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield in Week 2. Baker Mayfield is widely acknowledged as being an erratic quarterback in his own right. Yet, Mayfield was able to smoke the Bengals. Wentz and the Eagles managed only 23 points, and moreover, that was in 70 minutes of game play, not 60. The 10-minute overtime period wasn’t able to produce a single point for the Eagles.
The Browns, if given 10 more minutes against the Bengals, probably would have exceeded 40 points. If your offense is noticeably worse than the Browns’ offense, you’re in very deep trouble.
The 49ers should be able to gain a lot of separation between themselves and the Eagles, even without Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Nick Mullens has learned within the system and has become more comfortable as Kyle Shanahan’s backup option. Mullens was 25 of 36 for 343 yards against the Giants this past weekend with no interceptions. If he does anything close to that against the Eagles, this will be a wipeout.
Pick: 49ers to cover
Over/Under 45 points: 49ers (2-1) | Eagles (2-0-1)
The Eagles are averaging 19.7 points per game, while the 49ers are giving up an average of 15.3 points per game. The 49ers are scoring an average of 29 points per game, while the Eagles are giving up an average of 29 points per game. Based on those averages alone, you would put the total in the mid-40s, very close to where the number is now. However, the Niners have allowed an average of just 11 points in their last two games, and the Eagles’ offensive line is terrible. This suggests San Francisco should be able to smother Philadelphia’s offense and create a very low point total for the Eagles, certainly nothing higher than 14. As long as the Niners’ offense doesn’t explode, this game might have a point total which is nearly a touchdown lower than the actual NFL odds.
Pick: Under 45 points
Final Score: SF 26, PHI 10
Props Talk for Eagles at 49ers
This should be a game in which the Niners play conservatively, knowing their defense is strong and that they don’t have to take risks to win. San Francisco might still be able to score a lot – it did score 36 points last week against the New York Giants – but the 49ers have used a methodical approach on offense and aren’t trying to fling the ball down the field.
First score: 49ers field goal +300
Last week against the Giants, no 49er rushed for more than 38 yards. Brandon Aiyuk led the team with five receptions for 70 yards. San Francisco’s offense moved the ball patiently down the field in small installments. With Nick Mullens at quarterback instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, you are less likely to see huge plays and more likely to see a lot of short ball-control passes. You also probably won’t see the same dynamic level of red-zone production, which points to a field goal being San Francisco’s first score. The 49ers are likely to be the team which scores first simply because they’re a better team, and they have a defense that has allowed a total of 22 points in its last two games. The Eagles are not going to score very often. A Niner field goal is the best play, and you can get that for a much better price than the first score being a San Francisco touchdown, which is priced at +140.
Total Field Goals in the Game Over/Under 3½ — Over at +120
Keep in mind that The Eagles sacked Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow eight times last week. San Francisco will move the ball, but the 49ers might struggle to finish drives in this game against the Eagles’ pass rush, which points to the Niners kicking at least two if not three field goals on their own. Then consider how many field goals the Eagles might kick in the first half. Carson Wentz will struggle to punch the ball in the end zone against a San Francisco defense which has allowed just one touchdown in the past eight quarters of action. There should be a large bunch of made field goals in this contest.
Total TDs in the Game Over/Under 5½ — Under at -160
If there are going to be a lot of field goals in this game, there probably won’t be a ton of touchdowns. The Eagles won’t score often to begin with. They might score only one touchdown. If that happens, San Francisco would need to score five touchdowns to hit the over on this prop. With Nick Mullens in and Jimmy Garoppolo out, that’s very unlikely.