Bet on Jacksonville at Houston: Predictions

A team with that type of momentum would be difficult to stop in the playoffs. The Texans’ (+1100) odds to win the division are far greater than the Jaguars’ (+4000), even though Houston hasn’t won. The Texans’ moneyline is +6000, regarding their odds to win the conference, so a courageous $10 bet could pay out $600! Our sportsbook is chock full of goodies to gamble on, so get a few betting slips in play right now.

Houston has hit the reset button on the 2020 season, and they have too much talent to keep on losing. The Texans are disgruntled, zoned in, and have trespassing Jaguars in their crosshairs. This Jacksonville at Houston matchup has several betting angles to exploit, so let’s dive into the juicy particulars.

NFL Betting Lines

Jacksonville vs Houston Predictions

Moneyline: Jaguars +235 (1-3) | Texans -275 (0-4)

The Jaguars Week 1 victory over the Indianapolis Colts is looking more and more like a freak occurrence. Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals lit up the Jacksonville defense for 500+ yards. Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson has been steadily improving all season long, and is due for a breakout game. Watson earned a passer rating of 110.7 in each of his last two games, and the Jags’ passing D allows the ninth-most yards in the league.

In addition, Jacksonville has a handful of key injuries to contend with. Most notably, CBs D.J. Hayden (hamstring) and C.J. Henderson (shoulder) are both beat up and questionable to play. LB Myles Jack (ankle) is also hobbled. Expect a big day from Watson, the Texans’ receiving corps, and RB David Johnson. Houston will give the 13,000 or so fans in attendance reason to celebrate, as they notch their first victory.

Pick: Texans to win

Point Spread: Jaguars +6 (2-2) | Texans -6 (0-4)

The Texans haven’t won against the spread yet this season, but that’s about to change. Jacksonville is limping into Houston, and are in many ways falling apart at the seams. The Jaguars will not have the manpower or the talent on the field to contain a Texans’ eruption in Week 5. Houston is seething on both sides of the ball, hungry to get Romeo Crenel’s his first win as interim coach. The Texans will likely blow out the Jaguars by double-digits, in what represents a statement game.

Houston is 2-5 ATS over their last seven games within the division, and Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS over their last eight games overall. These two teams have performed almost equally lousily ATS recently, so here are the questions you have to ask yourself:

1. Who do you believe is the better team?
2. How important is home-field advantage?
3. Can the Jaguars battered defense stop a potent Houston offense that has been underperforming all season? An offense that is primed for a breakout game?

Pick: Texans -6

Over/Under 54 points: Jaguars (3-1) | Texans (3-1)

Two bottom-tier defenses (one of them seriously hobbled) will struggle to stop the points from flowing. They will fail. Picture a bottle of champagne uncorked, foaming and spilling all over the place. That’s how the points will be sprayed around in this game.

The defenses for Houston and Jacksonville both rank in the bottom 10, regarding average points per game allowed. The Texans have yielded 31.5 PPG, while the Jaguars give up an average of 29.3 PPG. Those averages add up to 60.8, and every piece of relevant information indicates that this will be a high scoring game.

Pick: Over 54 points

Jacksonville vs Houston Final Score Prediction

Texans 34, Jaguars 23

Jacksonville vs Houston Props Predictions

I imagine the Texans running out of the tunnel raging, a frothing band of Houston hulks, ready to smash Jacksonville. The scoreboard tallying fast and furious, early and often. This logical visualization represents a baseline for successful props betting in this matchup, and we’ll add a dash of devilry. Let’s play.

First Scoring Play: Texans TD +150

If the Texans win the coin-toss, expect them to storm down the field on their opening possession, scoring a touchdown. If Houston loses the coin-toss, they’ll either force a three-and-out or a turnover. The Texans will score a TD to start this game.

Total TDs in the Game: Over 5½ -155

This prop bet is not glamorous, but a win is a win. As mentioned above, two of the Jaguars three best cornerbacks are banged up and questionable to play vs the Texans. Watson should have no trouble picking the Jacksonville defense apart.

The Jags’ D was also very vulnerable against the run last week, giving up 151 yards and two scores to Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon. I predict that Johnson will enjoy his best statistical day as a Texans RB, and scores a couple of TDs himself.

Jacksonville’s kickers are battling injury as well, with Josh Lambo on the IR and Stephen Hauschka dealing with a knee issue. The Jaguars will be less likely to attempt field goals under the circumstances and will be pushing for TDs.

Shortest TD in the Game: Under 1½ Yards (-120)

This prop bet is intriguing. When is a TD of less than 1½ yards most likely to be scored? A short touchdown yardage touchdown like that often follows a defensive pass interference call in the end zone. The Jaguars’ secondary is short-staffed and hurting, and Jacksonville already has the second-most pass interference penalties this season (7).

Also, the Jaguars and Texans have each already scored two one-yard TDs this year. There is a precedent to my madness. This represents a great opportunity to play the probabilities and hit on a prop.

Nothing beats betting on the NFL!!! Now get out there and fire off some betting slips!!!