Coach T’s NFL Big-Game Breakdown: Chiefs vs Dolphins

Week 14 is destined to shake up the entire betting landscape. Going into the week most teams in the NFL are mathematically still able to make the playoffs. After Week 14 the playoff picture will become much clearer with the top teams separating from the rest of the pack. Let’s start with Chiefs vs Dolphins betting picks and see where the best online betting action lies.

The NFL gets ready to head into the final quarter of the season and the sports betting action is better than ever. The team in our BetUS Locker Room work endlessly to bring you the best online-betting advice around.

One of the best NFL matchups in Week 14 features the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Miami to take on the Dolphins. The Chiefs were the first team in the AFC to stamp their ticket to the postseason this season and are tied with the (11-1) Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins enter the game as the sixth-ranked team in the AFC.

✨ @PatrickMahomes vs. @Tua ✨ #FinsUp | #ChiefsKingdom

📺: #KCvsMIA — Sunday 1pm ET on CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app pic.twitter.com/SVx11yrwNo

— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2020

Chiefs vs Dolphins Betting Picks – Game Info

Date and Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami, Florida

Coverage: CBS

Attendance: 12,000

Reasons Why the Chiefs are the NFL’s Best Team

Before I get into the reasons why Miami could be the team to deliver the Chiefs their second loss, I would like to take a moment and remind everyone of why the Chiefs are still favored to win Super Bowl Odds. I’ll try and keep it brief because there is plenty of content on how great the Chiefs are.

Most Yards

The Chiefs have gained the most yards and have the second-highest scoring offense, averaging 30.8 points per game.

Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters with the NFL’s best total quarterback rating (85.7), the most passing yards (3,815), and third-most touchdowns (31). Mahomes has thrown a league-low two interceptions in 463 attempts. Mahomes’ overall passer rating is 113.8, second behind only Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers (118.5).

Always impressed at how easy Patrick Mahomes makes some of the tougher in-structure plays look. Has to throw back side kinda blind vs pressure (can't step up), yet he finds a way to throw perfect ball to convert on 3rd/7. pic.twitter.com/5GPF9Nc29t

— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) December 10, 2020

TE Travis Kelce (1,114) and WR Tyreek Hill (1,079) are ranked second and third in receiving yards.

Defense

The Chiefs’ defense is tied for second in the NFL with 14 interceptions. The Chiefs have the best takeaway differential at+12.

There was a time last year when everyone that follows the NFL realized that the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL. That still hasn’t changed, and actually, I think the gap is only getting wider between Kansas City and the rest of the league. “It’s kinda mind-numbing to think that guys are playing at that high of a level are really just improving,” Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer said Tuesday of the explosive Chiefs.

Mahomes

Mahomes who is 25 years old is only in his fourth season (third as a starter) in the NFL and he is obviously getting better. His relationship with Kelce and Hill is stronger than ever, which makes this offense nearly impossible to stop.

KC is still working things out with its rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he also is still getting better.

Our late night/early morning SportsCenter segment on Dolphins D vs. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. Good numbers breakdown to open then my reporting on how Dolphins are prepping: pic.twitter.com/TzsiZLDLi9

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 10, 2020

Reasons Why the Dolphins Could Defeat the Chiefs

There are many stats that tell why the Chiefs are 11-1 but the main reason they are the defending Super Bowl champs and the league’s best team — Mahomes. 2018’s MVP is not perfect and he will make mistakes, but not many. Opposing teams must take advantage of any opening. Below are some of the reasons why the Dolphins could be the team to take advantage of some mistakes and knock off the top dogs.

Giving up a Touchdown in the Red Zone

The Chiefs’ defense is giving up a touchdown in the red zone on 75.8% of trips inside the 20. That mark is good for the worst in the league.

Miami has the defensive group to make it tough on Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Dolphins have the NFL’s second-best scoring defense, allowing just 17.7 points per game.

Interceptions

The Dolphins have 13 interceptions, which puts them fifth on the leaderboard. Miami’s CB Xavien Howard leads the NFL with 8 interceptions.

The Dolphins are allowing opposing QBs to average a 62.4 completions percentage which ranks them with the fourth lowest. Their defense has allowed the fewest passing TDs (14) this season.

The Dolphins have kept opposing quarterbacks at 83.1 QBR, which ranks third in the league.

The Dolphins are the third least penalized team this season and average 39 penalty yards per game.

Brian Flores

Since starting out his tenure in Miami with an 0-7 record last season, head coach Brian Flores has the Dolphins at 13-8 in their past 21 games.

Flores was in charge of the New England Patriots’ defense in 2018 when they beat the Chiefs twice, including the AFC championship game.

Who will shine brightest in Week 14?@heykayadams is looking at the @MiamiDolphins HC.

"Brian Flores wants to put Andy Reid in a slow cooker and get himself a win to get his team in the playoffs." pic.twitter.com/vX24rALCxz

— GMFB (@gmfb) December 11, 2020

The Dolphins’ Keys to Victory

The Chiefs just need to take care of business in Miami on Sunday and they should win. The Dolphins need to do something to make it hard for the Chiefs to execute their game plan. The Dolphins need a lot to go right to get a W this week.

Lock Down Coverage

The Dolphins are going to need their secondary to play well in this game. Guys like CBs Howard and Byron Jones, and SS Eric Row all need to be locked in to make sure the Chiefs’ speedy receivers do not get anything easy over top. Row has been given a lot of praise as one of the best cover safeties on tight-ends — this week he has the best TE in football coming to town. If Row can effectively take away Kelse for parts of this game then we may see a mistake by Mahomes trying to force the ball in somewhere.

It’s the best Tight End in the NFL vs the man they call the “Tight End Eraser.” Who you got? ⬇️ #FinsUp #Miami #305 pic.twitter.com/diD5JuqZuK

— Fins Unified ™ (@FinsUnified) December 10, 2020

Force Turnovers

Miami needs to force Mahomes into his third interception if it wants to win. Mahomes’ first interception came during the Chiefs’ only loss in Week 5 against the Raiders. His only other INT came in the rematch with the Raiders that the Chiefs’ won. Miami has the defensive speed to be able to match up with the Chiefs on the outside and bring pressure. It can also be a fumble recovery but as long as Miami can get a takeaway or two, then they can win this game. Coach Flores’ blitz-heavy, ball-hawking defensive schemes have produced at least one takeaway in 18 consecutive games, the longest such streak in the NFL.

Good Quarterback Play

Rookie-QB Tua Tagovailoa is 4-1 in his first five starts and is yet to throw an interception — making him the third rookie in the Super Bowl era to not throw a pick in their first five starts (Dak Prescott and Josh Allen are the other two). Tagovailoa has not played particularly well compared to some of his rookie peers (Justin Herbert) but he definitely hasn’t played poorly either. He is coming off his best performance last week — where he threw for 296 yards and a TD against the (3-8-1) Bengals.

Tagovailoa is going to need to execute the game plan and make some good throws to pick up third-downs and keep the Chiefs explosive offense on the sideline. If Miami can establish a run game early in the game with Myles Gaskins, then Tagovailoa should be able to run play-action more effectively as the game wears on. Miami’s rookie QB is going to have to play the best game of his career to get a win against the best-QB in the NFL.

#FinsUp Tua Tagovailoa (2020)

86/136 (63 Completion Percentage)
935 Total Yards
7 Touchdowns
0 Interceptions
99.45 Pass Rating

…but make sure you pop off those anti-Tua tweets throughout the week and ask for him to be benched. pic.twitter.com/seSLSehOTL

— ☞ (@Godfather__MIA) December 6, 2020

Ultimately Why the Chiefs Will Win

The Dolphins are a good football team, but the Chiefs are in another class right now. The Chiefs have shown that there is some weakness in their armor the past few games, but even if it was ugly — they won. It is not easy to win in the NFL even with Patrick Mahomes as your QB (he does make it a lot easier though). Ultimately the Chiefs will win this game because Mahomes will be the best player on the field. Even if Miami can secure a lead late in the game, Mahomes has shown many times in his young career — his Chiefs are never out of a game.

Through 43 starts, Patrick Mahomes is on a pace no other QB has EVER been on:

‣ 13,227 yds (most ever)
‣ 107 pass TD (most ever)
‣ 110.3 passer rating (best ever)
‣ 20 INT (fewest ever with min. 10 pass TD)

Simply ridiculous @PatrickMahomes | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/aH7ZXPOr6J

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 7, 2020

Okay everyone gets it — Mahomes is the best QB in football right now. Why else will the Chiefs win, you ask?

Andy Ried

Head coach Andy Reid is one of the best in the business at scheming up points for his team against good defenses.

Miami is starting three rookie offensive linemen for the second week in a row. This could mean trouble for the Dolphins against the Chiefs’ strong front seven.

Miami loves the man-to-man defensive schemes. So does Mahomes, as he has 15 TDs and zero interceptions against man this year.

Through 43 starts, Patrick Mahomes is on a pace no other QB has EVER been on:

‣ 13,227 yds (most ever)
‣ 107 pass TD (most ever)
‣ 110.3 passer rating (best ever)
‣ 20 INT (fewest ever with min. 10 pass TD)

Simply ridiculous @PatrickMahomes | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/aH7ZXPOr6J

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 7, 2020

Players Out

In NFL injury news, Miami’s outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy (hip), starting left guard Ereck Flowers (ankle), linebacker Elandon Roberts (chest) and rookie running back Salvon Ahmed (shoulder), all did not practice for the second straight day.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Betting Picks: Betting on the Game

There are a lot of reasons that the Dolphins could upset the Chiefs this week and I really wanted to write this piece and confidently tell my readers that I thought the Dolphins would win.

I just can’t bring myself to tell people to bet against the Chiefs on the moneyline. I think Mahomes throws a pick this week and the Dolphins give the Chiefs another scare. Let’s have a look at the Chiefs vs Dolphins betting picks.

Moneyline Pick

It would be a great story and a better payout if you bet the Dolphins to win this game and it comes true. The major issue with that bet is – your betting on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to lose a game. Mahomes’ record is 25-4 , since the beginning of the 2019 season (including playoffs). In my opinion the Chiefs are due to lose again soon, but you would have gone broke trying to bet against the Chiefs the past two years.

Over his last 30 regular season games, Patrick Mahomes has 64 touchdown passes and 8 INTs. pic.twitter.com/qeG6LzWuEl

— Super 70s Sports (@Super70sSports) December 7, 2020

Moneyline Pick: Chiefs -335

Spread Pick

The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS this year. The Dolphins have only lost by more than seven points twice this year (Week 1 and Week 3). Their biggest loss of 10 points coming to the (6-7) Patriots in Week 1.

The Chiefs are 6-6 ATS this year. The Chiefs have not won by more than six points since a NFL Week 9 matchup when they blew out the (0-11) New York Jets 35-9.

Spread Pick: Dolphins +7 -110

Over/Under Pick

As you see in the Hot/Cold trend chart above, the under is 5-0 in the Chiefs last five road games against an opponent with a winning record. The under is also 5-1 in games that feature the Dolphins against an AFC opponent.

Pick: Under 50½ -110

Final Score

“I wish we could have 14 defenders,” Miami coach Brian Flores said when asked about the Chiefs’ offense.

I think the Dolphins will need an extra defender if they plan on stopping the Chiefs. Expect this to be a close game. Even though I know the Chiefs are always capable of blowing out an opponent. It will be a good measuring stick for the Dolphins as they have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. The New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders and the Buffalo Bills following the Chiefs.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Betting Picks Final Score: Chiefs 72, Dolphins 21