After being put on hold twice because of Covid-19 positive tests, the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos appear ready to finally meet in Week 6. The AFC playoff hopefuls were originally scheduled to play on Oct. 11, but that game was rescheduled for the following day because of several positive tests in the Patriots organization. Another positive test that day forced the game to be moved to Week 6.
Now, Denver will look to build on its first win of the season while New England looks to get back in the win column following its Week 4 loss at Kansas City. Now, let’s look at where the best NFL betting odds value can be found in this affair.
*Update: The Patriots’ had another positive Covid-19 test Friday so it is anyone’s guess how this will play out.
|Game: Denver Broncos (1-3) vs New England Patriots (2-2)
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborogh, MA
Time: 1 p.m. ET
NFL Betting Lines
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
Moneyline: Broncos -300 (3-1) | Patriots +250 (2-2)
New England has alternated wins and losses over their first four games, including its 26-10 Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Pats also lost to another Super Bowl favorite by falling to the Seattle Seahawks, 35-30, in Week 2. The Patriots smacked around the Miami Dolphins in their opener and took out the Las Vegas Raiders 36-20 in Week 3.
Denver earned its first win in Week 4 by beating the lowly New York Jets 37-28 and it could have starting quarterback Drew Lock back for this affair as he tries to return from a right shoulder injury. Lock practiced Wednesday, although head coach Vic Fangio wouldn’t say whether Lock would start in Week 6. For his part, Lock said he’s fit for duty.
“It feels good just to be doing what I love, doing what I feel like I was put down here to do,” Lock said after Wednesday’s practice. “Great to be back with the guys, calling plays in the huddle … gets pretty lonely back there with the headset.
The Broncos have eight wins in their last 24 games. They’ve going 3-9 SU in the last 12 road dates. New England is well-rested and hungry after taking a loss the last time it saw live action. More importantly, the Patriots have gone a robust 18-7 SU in its last 25 games and an impressive 17-3 SU in their last 20 home games. I don’t see any way New England falls at homer.
Broncos vs Patriots: Predictions
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Point Spread: Broncos +10 (3-1) | Patriots -10 (2-2)
Veteran quarterback and former NFL MVP Cam Newton could be back, after testing positive for Covid-19 a while back. The Patriots have had four players put on the reserve/COVID-19 list. In addition to Newton, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, defensive tackle Byron Cowart and practice squad defensive lineman Bill Murray have all tested positive.
The Broncos are looking good as a double-digit road dog. Denver has gone 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games in October, 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games as a road underdog, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
While New England has gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, the Patriots are also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
While the Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Patriots and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road dates against New England, I think Denver has a good shot to at least cover the spread.
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Predictions: Denver to cover
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Over/Under 45 points: Broncos (2-2) | Patriots (2-2)
While both of these teams have identical 2-2 Over/Under marks heading into this matchup, I believe the combination of mediocre offenses, but solid defenses will produce an under outcome.
The Under is 13-3-1 in Denver’s last 17 games following a straight-up win and 19-7-1 in the Broncos last 27 games against their AFC counterparts. The Under is also 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 16-5 in New England’s last 21 games following a straight-up loss.
Broncos vs Patriots Predictions: Under 45 points
Final Score: New England 27, Denver 17