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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Week 1 Over Under Pick

· Aug 07 - 3 minutes read

The 2020 NFL season will get started with a Divisional Round rematch on Kickoff Thursday when the Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans are coming into this year with a ton of questions after shipping their star receiver DeAndre Hopkins off to the Arizona Cardinals while adding running back David Johnson and Randall Cobb. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are defending Super Bowl champions and enter the season favored to win it again. Speaking of winning it all, Kansas City is +500, while Houston is +4500, in the Super Bowl Odds in our sportsbook.

This could end up being one of the more interesting games in NFL Week 1. These teams played two very entertaining contests last season. The playoff matchup was a classic, as the Texans were up 24-0 in the first half before allowing the Chiefs to completely roar back and eventually blow them out.

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs walks off the field following his teams win against the Houston Texans — TOM PENNINGTON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

The Chiefs are a 10-point favorite over the Texans in this contest, and the Over/Under is set at 54.5 total points. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.

Texans Offense

The Texan’s offense was very solid last season, led by the duo of Watson and Hopkins. But the Texans dealt Hopkins to the Cardinals in exchange for often-injured running back David Johnson. However, they did boost their receiving corps by adding Brandin Cooks from the Los Angeles Rams and signing Cobb.

Texans Defense

Their defense was weak last season, finishing 28th in yards allowed. While they still have J.J. Watt, he has been injured a lot recently and is not as consistently dominant as he once was. They still have some holes in the secondary as well as their linebacking core.

Chiefs Offense

The Chiefs will remain one of the best offenses in the league this season. With star quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the charge, this team could lead the league in points. They also have a good offensive line and dangerous playmakers like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins. It will be difficult to stop this scoring unit.

Chiefs Defense

The Chief’s defense finished seventh in points allowed per game. They have their weaknesses but do have a good amount of talent after locking up defensive tackle Chris Jones to a big extent. This defense just has to be good – not great – in order to win games.

Over Under Trends

Last season, the Chiefs went 10-9 OVER, including their playoff run to the Super Bowl, while the Texans went 8-10 OVER for the season. Focusing a little closer, we see that four of Houston’s last five road games went OVER, as well as four of the past six times they’ve played against the Chiefs.

Texans vs Chiefs Free Over Under Pick

The Chiefs are at home, which should provide an edge, but remember that they were better on the road (7-1) than at home (5-3) last season. The Texans actually came to Kansas City and beat them at Arrowhead Stadium earlier in the year.

Don’t expect the Texan’s offense to be able to get stops here, I do expect the Texans to score points in this one. On the spread, take the Texans with the points but the best bet for this game will be the over. There will be plenty of scoring in this one.