Week 17 brings an end to the NFL sports betting regular season, with NFL matchups where one side has everything to play for and the other only the role of spoiler. In the late slot, many eyes will be on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the hopes they can upset the Indianapolis Colts. By the time the game goes off, a number of NFL teams could be clinging to the upset as their backdoor entrance into the postseason.
When they first played, in the season opener, the sportsbook priced the Indianapolis Colts as touchdown favorites, and provided an upset that’s been the Jaguars’ only win this season.
| Game: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5) Location: Lucas Oil Stadium Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Television: CBS |
Jacksonville collapsed Sunday, after putting in a solid third of a game. The underdog no bettors wanted, Jacksonville was catching nine points and did more than enough to beat themselves, with the help of the Chicago Bears, 41-17. The loss ensures the Jags of at least tying their worst season in franchise history.
The Colts looked like the team bettors backed from being a small underdog to a short favorite, as they carried a 17-point lead into the final third of their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Somehow only netting a total of 20 (!) rushing yards, the Steelers scored three consecutive times to mount a 28-24 comeback.
This week, Jacksonville named quarterback Mike Glennon starter again this week. But this time, he’ll be without more than stand-out running back James Robinson and wide-out Collin Johnson, and possibly lead receiver D.J. Chark, who hasn’t practiced so far this week.
Meanwhile, the Colts who are playoff desperate for a win come into the game down two offensive tackles, particularly Anthony Castonzo, and a couple of key defenders in cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and safety Khari Willis, who may not clear concussion protocol.
NFL Betting Lines
Moneyline: Jaguars +700 (1-14) | Colts -1000 (10-5)
If you think the Jaguars had an interest in tanking in order to secure the first overall pick, consider that they don’t yet have the first pick of the second round secured yet. Were they to pull off the upset (and the Jets lose) they would flip-flop those first picks of even and odd-numbered rounds, having the same record. So Jacksonville might still have something to play, or not play for.
Not surprisingly, the NFL betting odds moneyline heavily favors Indianapolis as 1-10 favorites. It’s difficult to price these Jaguars as having much above a 10% chance of pulling off this upset.
Pick: Colts to win
Point Spread: Jaguars +14 (6-9) | Colts -14 (8-7)
Accordingly, the point spread is a hefty two touchdowns. This is likely overpriced and expect to see the sharps come in to take the points with the Jags. The presence of D.J. Chark should move this line depending on his Friday practice listing, but these are division rivals and the Colts come in wounded.
Take the points with the Jaguars expecting that they’ll keep fighting in garbage time despite having the Colts probably buried them.
Pick: Jaguars +14
Over/Under 49½ points
The total opened 50 and notched down to 49½. Given the lack of bodies on the offensive side, we’d expect that number to come down further, and would lean to the under at this price.
Pick: Under 49½
Final Score: Colts 27, Jaguars 18
