The favorite doesn’t always win the game, and it’s our job to identify what underdogs will make us some money. Online sports betting can certainly be bankable, but we have to pay attention to the hidden messages within the trends. There are always subtle storylines lingering beneath the standard NFL betting strategies and statistical analysis. Here are a couple of wily Wild Card Sunday wagers which go against all odds.
Baltimore Ravens (5) vs Tennessee Titans (4)
For the second straight season, Tennessee and Baltimore are battling in the playoffs, and the Ravens are favored once again. The most recent NFL odds on our sportsbook show the Titans as 3½-point home dogs in Nashville vs the Ravens. Tennessee was the underdog in last year’s Divisional Round vs Baltimore, but bounced the SB favorites from the postseason, 28-12.
This time around, Baltimore bum-rushed the playoff picture by winning five consecutive contests, closing out the regular season 6-0 ATS. However, the Titans have won five of their last seven, including a 30-24 OT win over the Ravens in Week 11. A deep-seeded bitterness is brewing between Tennessee and Baltimore now, and the rivalry is fierce.
In both of the Titans’ recent victories over the Ravens, RB Derrick Henry humiliated and humbled Baltimore’s proud rush defense. Henry rumbled for 133 yards and a TD on 28 carries vs the Ravens’ eighth-ranked run D earlier this season. The NFL’s rushing leader, who finished with 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns, is getting stronger over time.
Henry has piled up 710 yards and five rushing TDs over his last four games. Most recently, Henry ground-pounded Houston for 250 yards and two scores, the 13th-most single-game rushing total in league history. With that performance, Henry became the first player in NFL history to run for 200+ yards in three consecutive contests vs a single opponent. The Texans need to invest in some run-stoppers in the offseason, LOL.
Henry is a locomotive gaining steam, and he’ll roll right over the Ravens once again on Sunday. Look for Baltimore to fall behind early in front of 14,250 screaming Tennessee fans, with no clear course to recovery. Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson has only thrown north of 200 yards in one of his previous six starts, so don’t expect him to be gunslinging much on the Titans’ D.
Take the home dog with recent head-to-head history on its side. This is almost certainly the game of the week and is well worth the price of admission. Tennessee wins ATS and SU as well, so play the +155 moneyline as well.
Prediction: Titans 31, Ravens 30
Free ATS Pick: Tennessee Titans +3½ vs Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee Titans +155 Moneyline
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