Throughout the entire season, Green Bay has been a hot and cold team. Sometimes they look like Super Bowl favorites and other times they’re just about average. The general consensus seems to love the Packers as basic road dogs this weekend, and I’m not entirely sure why. Losing to the Christian Ponder version of the Vikings, and then demolishing the Joe Webb rendition, seemed to violently change how people view these Packers.
Green Bay did what it’s continued to do in games and that’s put up points. Aaron Rodgers looked fantastic with his fully assembled crew of receivers, and the rushing game seemed more of a boon than a detriment. This is all the stuff you expect to read about the Packers at this point. You and I both know that they’re very good. From a betting standpoint, their 5-1 SU and ATS record in the last six weeks makes them very tempting as well.
The other betting trends continue to make Green Bay look like a solid take. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Playoff games as well and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games on the road. They’re also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games held on Saturday.
Beyond that, they’re more of a known commodity. You know what you’re getting with Green Bay because we’ve basically seen their turnover-seeking defense do their thing while Aaron Rodgers continues to amaze us. That’s probably why most of the action coming in on this game leans towards the Packers.
Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds.
And that’s also a reason to bet against Green Bay. The 49ers are a great team overall, and their defense has had an extra week to study Aaron Rodgers and game plan against him. On top of that, I’m not so sure Green Bay’s defense is the type that will excel at containing a mobile quarterback.
Collin Kaepernick may not be a long-term solution at quarterback, but at the moment he’s a great option. I just don’t know enough about this style of quarterback at the pro level to leverage any faith in Kaepernick’s long-term prospects, but I do know that he’s certainly capable. If there’s one glaring weakness that the Packers defense has, it’s that they give up a ton of yards. The Niners not only have a guy who can make all the throws, but they also have Frank Gore at running back and the best offensive line in the league. They’ll be able to chew Green Bay’s defense apart.
The Niners still have every chance of being an up and down team, but this was a team that was a force to be reckoned with heading into the season and they somehow got even more dangerous. I’m not saying that the Green Bay Packers won’t put up a fight – because they will. The game against Seattle derailed a lot of the excitement on San Fran, and Kaepernick is still an unknown commodity. The Packers look very strong, but I think the Niners as a whole will be able to win the fight in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that’s enough to give the home favorites the inside track for me.
Furious Playoff Betting Pick – San Francisco -3.0 (OVER)