The enigmatic Patriots handed the Baltimore Ravens their third loss in Week 10. After dropping four straight games, the Patriots have willed their way to two straight wins.
The RB duo of Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead stole the show against the Ravens. Harris totaled 122 yards on 21 carries, while Burkhead caught two touchdown passes. Cam Newton managed the game well, completing 13 of his 17 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. Most impressively, the Patriots held the NFL’s best rushing attack to 115 yards on the ground. The Patriots desperately needed this win to keep any shred of playoff hope alive. They’re still longshots, as they’re +1200 to win the AFC East, but I wouldn’t put anything past a Bill Belichick coached team. This Sunday, New England will head to Houston to take on the Texans and try to continue its winning ways. The online betting odds currently list the Patriots as 2½ point favorites in NFL Week 11.
Since starting the season 0-4 and firing Coach Bill O’Brien, the Texans have gone 2-3 and been more competitive. They dropped their Week 10 game vs the Browns, 10-7, in a windy weather slugfest in Cleveland. Unfortunately, these were conditions that didn’t play to the Texans’ strengths, as they rank 31st in rushing yards per game and have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. Browns RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 230 yards and the Texans only managed 90 rushing yards. Deshaun Watson did what he could, completing 20-of-30 passes in rough conditions for 163 yards and a touchdown. But, the Texans’ lack of a dynamic running game showed in this one. RB David Johnson is out on IR with a concussion, so it looks like Duke Johnson will continue to receive the majority of the carries in Week 11.
|Game: New England (4-5) vs Houston (2-7)
Location: NRG Stadium
Time: 1 p.m. ET
NFL Betting Lines
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
Moneyline: Patriots -145 | Texans +125
Bill Belichick is 10-2 against the Texans as Patriots Head Coach. But, one of those losses came in 2019. Deshaun Watson threw three touchdown passes in the win, but the Pats held the Texans to 52 total rushing yards. The Texans are 5-0 SU in their last five games against AFC East competition, but it’s clear that this isn’t the same Texans team from years past. It’s not the same Patriots team either, but this is a favorable matchup for them. The Texans haven’t beaten any non-Jaguars opponent this season and that trend should continue for at least another week.
Pick: Patriots to Win
Point Spread: -2½ Patriots
Houston is an abysmal 2-7 ATS. The Texans covered last week, but are 1-5 ATS in games they’ve been underdogs in. The Pats are 4-5 ATS and have covered in two of the last three weeks. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Houston. The Pats are third in the league in rushing yards per game and ran the ball 39 times last week against the Ravens. They should have even more success against the league’s worst run defense and should cover here.
Pick: Patriots to Cover
Over/Under: 47½ points
Neither offense has been putting up a lot of points. The Patriots have scored 21 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans have put up 22.2 PPG, which is good for 25th. New England has been pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball, nearly cracking the top 10 in opponent PPG. The Texans defense has allowed 28 PPG but it has only allowed 23.3 PPG in the last three games. The total has gone under in four of Houston’s last five games at home. It’s also gone under in four of New England’s last six games. With the offensive struggles both teams have displayed this season, I’m betting on another under here.
Pick: Under 47½
Props Talk for Patriots at Texans
Highest Scoring Half
Second Half -110
New England ranks third to last in first-half points, with 8.0 per game. Meanwhile, the Texans have only managed 9.3 first-half points per game. I expect the Patriots to play a measured, possession-based run game against a weak Texans defense. So, if the Texans go down, I think they’ll try to air it out in the second half to manufacture some points.
1st Half Total FGs Scored Over/Under 1½
From a value standpoint, this looks to be as good as it gets from this game. The Patriots stifled the Ravens on defense last weekend. Perhaps the Texans won’t have many red-zone opportunities to score touchdowns and will settle for FGs.
First Scoring Play
Patriots FG +375
The odds here correspond to an implied probability of only 21%. This seems like another solid value bet. Nick Folk has been solid when called upon, hitting 15 of 17 field goals this season.