The chance for three televised NFL bets in a single play with the BetUS Sportsbook Prime Time Parlay Week 7. Normally, we’d offer a sports betting pick for Thursday night to roll into Sunday night, into Monday. But this week, we’ve got to call an audible — the Sunday Night game is off the board. With the entire Las Vegas Raiders’ offensive line sent to Covid timeout, no one is sure what their lineup or the betting line should be.
So we’re switching to the nationally-featured afternoon game on Sunday, the New England Patriots hosting the San Francisco 49ers. Also in the spirit of mixing it up, we’re playing a six-point teaser. Like the parlay, all three bets (or legs) must be correct to cash the ticket, but with the teaser we take six points in favor of our bets.
The Eagles came out of last week limping with another fresh set of injuries. Unable to play this Thursday are a handful of starting offensive weapons like TE Zack Ertz, WR Alshon Jeffrey and RB Miles Sanders. Just as the Eagles might get their offensive line patched up, and QB Carson Wentz might not have to run for this life three seconds after the snap, he won’t have as many quality options upfield.
For their part, the Giants sustained some injuries on their defensive front line, but could return a slightly better roster this week.
Taking 10½ points in a game that reasonably shouldn’t see more than 50 scored means you’re asking the Giants to score at least 17 or even as many as 20. Their team total suggests they’ll get there, and we’ll expect to see them return two wide-outs from injury this week for a game that should be pass heavy.
Teaser Leg #1: New York Giants +10½ [6 pt Teaser]
San Francisco spent last week making roster moves to repair its historically injured defense. Now this week, they face devastating injury to their offense. Not just to their O-line but critically their main ground weapon RB Raheem Mostert, who will be placed on IR about two minutes before Niners’ coach Kyle Shanahan is obliged by the rules to do so.
With Mostert out, and Jimmy Garoppolo claiming he’s feeling his game better, the 49ers could be expected to game plan for a high-scoring game. Certainly, the Patriots are going to throw the ball on the Niners because have you seen their secondary? If the teams can patch up their offensive lines by Sunday (both have holes) we like their chances to put up a final higher than 20-17.
Teaser Leg #2: Over 37½ [6 pt Teaser]
It’s hard to choose just one stat that summarizes how the Bears are overachieving with a 5-1 record. Maybe the 12 points difference between them and their opponents. Or their 4.83 yards per play, ranking 28th in the league. Since it’s the Monday night game, teams don’t have to report their practices and injuries until a day after the others, so it’s a little too early to know which way the markets might move this pointspread.
How the 5-1 Bears rank in the NFL on offense through 6 games…
4.83 yards per play (28th)
3.86 yards per carry (25th)
5.62 yards per pass (28th)
4.62% sacks per pass (11th)
36.2% on third down (27th)
52.6% in the red zone (26th)
21.3 points per game (27th)
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) October 20, 2020
Based on some popular power ratings, it seems like Rams -6 is priced with some expectation that the Bears will regress to the mean. Six points seems like too much for the Rams to cover yet not enough for the Bears. But with the line moved to a pick, we favor this play.