It takes a team to win a championship, but the quarterbacks always get the spotlight. Super Bowl LV will take that to a new level as Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs against Tom Brady and the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m liking several quarterback props lined at plus odds.
Mahomes is already making a case as the best QB today while Brady is the best of all time. BetUS sportsbook gives you a chance to bet on just Mahomes and/or Brady to complete (or not complete) certain milestones in this game.
But not all Super Bowl props are made equal. Some are a toss-up and some are offered generously. Let’s look at five quarterback props whose online sports betting odds are worth a squeeze.
Tom Brady Over 2½ Total Touchdown Passes
As I mentioned in the Buccaneers prop article, Brady should throw at least three touchdowns in this game. He threw for three in the first game when the team fell behind and that could repeat itself here.
In a closer game, Brady will still be on hand to lead the Bucs’ charge. The running game may be involved with Leonard Fournette potentially finishing the job in the red zone.
But the Chiefs are better at stopping running scores (9th) than passing (14th). Brady also turns it up during the big games as does Rob Gronkowski. He’ll throw for three or more.
Patrick Mahomes Will Throw an Interception
I covered this with the Chiefs prop picks, but getting this at plus money is a gift. Mahomes wasn’t picked in the first game, but this is a Tampa team that has emerged as being capable of forcing turnovers in the playoffs.
Tampa has recorded at least one interception in its three playoff games. They’ll be better at taking away Mahomes’ main options and even if Hill is still a mismatch, they’ll generate enough pressure on Mahomes to force a bad pass or two.
Sean Murphy-Bunting has been a johnny-on-the-spot in the playoffs, but watch out for the young fellas Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead to make a splash.
Patrick Mahomes Will Throw a 1st Quarter Touchdown Pass
It’s curious why this prop is lined at plus odds when Mahomes easily threw two touchdown passes in the first game. Now, Bruce Arians and the Tampa defense will probably have made adjustments.
Hill and Travis Kelce will get blanketed. But so what? Mahomes will either make use of his other weapons or still throw it to one of them for a touchdown.
The Bucs gamble too much on defense and will give up a score quickly.
Tom Brady Under ½-Yard Longest Rush From Scrimmage
Brady’s average yards per rushing attempt in his last eight games: -1, 0.4, -0.7, 0.6, 0, -1, -0.7. He’s 43 and was already slow before he was even drafted. That’s why teams passed on him 198 times in the draft.
In their first game, Brady attempted to rush once and lost one yard. I see little reason why Brady can net more than one rushing yard.
The prop here also states that no rushing attempts will cash the under. A sack isn’t a rushing attempt. Even if Brady finds enough turf to make use of his legs, he’ll likely just throw a short one to his tight ends or force one.
Brady To Have Fewer Completions Than Knicks’ 1st-Quarter Points
Alright, these NFL betting odds are not exactly dog money but it’s the next best thing as Brady will be completing less than 30 passes in the Super Bowl.
The Knicks have one of the worst-rated offenses and average about 27 first quarter points. But they’re up against Portland, one of the worst defenses in the NBA who allow over 30 first quarter points.
The Blazers also allow teams to shoot over 48 percent from the field and 37 percent from downtown. As bad as the Knicks are, the Blazers’ casual defense will make this a high-scoring affair.