Welcome to The Contrarian: Against All Odds, the Week 6 edition. All three teams that I targeted as valuable underdog picks last week, won against the spread. The Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins won their games outright. The New York Giants probably should have beaten the Dallas Cowboys, but they buckled under the pressure and couldn’t seal the deal.
We almost achieved complete contrarian perfection in Week 5, but 5-out-of-6 ain’t bad. The NFL odds for Week 6 have given us three extremely solid underdog picks, so let’s bet against the grain! Time to fill up those sportsbook betting slips!
Bears at Panthers
Sunday, Oct. 18 at 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Underdog Betting Vitals
Point Spread: Bears +1½ (-110)
A week ago, it was the Carolina Panthers (3-2) who were +1½ on the road in Atlanta. Those who followed my lead by betting on Carolina’s point spread and/or moneyline were smiling at the end of the game. The Panthers won 23-16, and we cashed with contrarian delight.
Now the tables are turned, and the Panthers are home favorites vs the Chicago Bears (4-1). Da Bears are like Rodney Dangerfield, in that they get “no respect.” Chicago has lost one game this season, tripping in Indianapolis during Week 4. The Bears rebounded by grinding out a gritty win against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last week, notching a 20-19 victory.
Carolina has won its last three games, after losing 10 games straight immediately before this winning streak began. NFL betting is all about reading the ebb and flow of momentum, and capitalizing on those valuable reads. The Panthers have been playing over their heads a bit, and have a lot of injuries. Carolina is due to lose.
Prediction: Bears 26, Panthers 21
Bears’ QB Nick Foles gets the chance to throw on a banged-up Panthers’ defense. Expect Foles to enjoy his best game yet as a Chicago Bear in Week 6. WR Allen Robinson is steadily heating up and caught 10 passes from Foles last week for 90 yards. Robinson’s 10 catches tied a career-high, and he’s in position to set a personal best vs. Carolina.
The most recent odds to win the division show the Bears (+300) playing second fiddle to the Packers (-400). Chicago needs a win here to keep pace with Green Bay, and I believe that it will secure one. The Bears have been consistently clutch in 2020.
Chicago has a defense that is shaping up to be elite, and DE Khalil Mack has awoken. The Bears sport the fourth-ranked defense in the NFL, allowing a meager 20 points per game. For those who need further analyticals: Chicago is 2-0 on the road and has won four of its last five contests with the Panthers.
It’s Raining Ducketts: Free Week 6 Underdog Picks, Chicago Bears +1½
Browns at Steelers
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Underdog Betting Vitals
Moneyline: Browns +165
Point Spread: Browns +4 (-115)
The Cleveland Browns (4-1) are four-point road dawgs vs the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0). The Steelers have the sixth-ranked defense overall, but have played teams with a combined 2020 record of 3-15-1. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been dealing with high-flying offenses in its previous four games.
The Browns own the fourth-best offense in the NFL, and have scored a minimum of 32 points in each of their last four games. Defensively, Cleveland is killing it, averaging 3.3 takeaways over its last three contests. The Browns as a total package are smoking hot, like many of us expected them to be last season.
Pittsburgh has played softcore competition all season, and Cleveland is set to bum rush the Steelers. The Browns are a sneaky longshot regarding Super Bowl LV odds too, with a sexy moneyline of +2800. Those odds are destined to shift, once Cleveland leaves Heinz Field celebrating its first Steel City win since 2003.
Prediction: Browns 29, Steelers 23.
It’s Raining Ducketts: Free Week 6 Underdog Picks, Cleveland Browns +4, Moneyline +165
Chiefs at Bills
Monday, 5 p.m. ET, FOX, NFLN, Amazon
Underdog Betting Vitals
Moneyline: Bills +195
Point Spread: Bills +5 (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) and Buffalo Bills (4-1) each were smacked to Earth with Week 5 losses. The Chiefs lost a shootout with the Las Vegas Raiders in Arrowhead, while the Bills were humbled by the Tennessee Titans in Nashville. One team will bounce back enough to win this Week 6 battle between AFC heavyweight contenders. It’ll be Buffalo.
KC’s signing of RB Le’Veon Bell earlier this week made a big media splash, but Buffalo’s run defense is no slouch. The Bills’ rushing D is ranked 12th.
Two MVP-caliber quarterbacks are searching to rejoin the groove they fell out of in Week 5. Patrick Mahomes (+450) and Josh Allen (+700) are each in the conversation, when it comes to NFL regular-season MVP odds. Allen gets back on track at the Ralph, throwing haymakers at Kansas City’s mediocre passing defense. WR Stefon Diggs: career game.
The Bills will regroup and circle the wagons, protecting the ball well and hammering the Chiefs with a reinvented defense. Buffalo is undefeated at home ATS this season, so take the free five points happily. Fortune favors the bolds who bet the moneyline.
Prediction: Bills 37, Chiefs 30
It’s Raining Ducketts: Free Week 6 Underdog Picks ATS, Buffalo Bills +5, +195
My Week 6 underdog picks are all about the three Bs: Bears, Browns, and Bills. Now… Bet bravely, before burgeoning baloney blindsides budding betting bliss. Brilliant, boys!
“You know, I love dogs”: