Aussie Rules is big business Down Under and it’s just over halfway through the regular season.
The Melbourne Demons lead the way after dropping only one of their 12 games. It has been a big turnaround for the Demons, who were the big disappointment of 2020.
Chasing them are the Western Bulldogs, Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions. They’re all top-level teams, and along with the Port Adelaide Power and Richmond Tigers, are the only teams quoted at less than +1000.
The top eight teams make the playoffs and it’s an even AFL ladder, so every team still has a chance to secure a postseason spot.
The week’s biggest games are available at the online sportsbook. You can find them under Football – Australian Football.
AFL Team to Follow – Geelong Cats
There is no doubt that Melbourne has impressed the most so far, but the Geelong Cats are experienced at winning AFL championships.
They are also riding a lengthy winning streak, which continued on Wednesday when upsetting the Port Adelaide Power in Adelaide. It was a terrific comeback performance after being down by 20 points nearing halftime.
📻 “It’s a wonderful group, with the exception of Paddy (Dangerfield). He’s got an ego that could fill the MCG. But as far as the rest of them go, I like the rest of them.” Zach Tuohy @GeelongCats😸
— ABC SPORT (@abcsport) June 10, 2021
It was their fifth consecutive win and given their finals experience, there is no occasion too big for them. Having Patrick Dangerfield back is a bonus and he slotted perfectly.
“The bye probably came at a good time for him [Dangerfield]. It probably would have been a hard decision to play him if we had a game last week,” coach Chris Scott told The Age.
“I suspect he would have come up for that one but the fact he had an extra week of training under his belt with his teammates as well is important because bringing new players back into the team does potentially cause some disruption.”
Geelong always makes a second-half run and the early signs are good.
AFL Value Team – Sydney Swans
The Sydney Swans aren’t expected to challenge, but they weren’t expected to be in the top eight after 12 rounds either.
They have been a value team in AFL betting markets and that should continue for the remaining rounds. Winning eight of their 12 games, the Swans are exceeding expectations, but bookmakers continue to price them as underdogs.
After losing two of three games, they bounced back to win their last two. Wins over St Kilda and Carlton hold them in good stead and bettors will continue to get value odds over the next few weeks.
AFL Upset Chance – GWS Giants
The Giants are one of the more enigmatic Aussie Rules teams, but we wouldn’t be giving up on them.
Greater Western Sydney sits outside the top eight in 10th, but it has won three of its last five and the potential is there. The Giants aren’t the best offensive team in the competition having scored just 882 points, but they have allowed only 945.
Their 882 points scored ranks 15th in the AFL. However, 945 points on defense ranks seventh. There is plenty of upside with the Giants and if they can squeeze into the playoffs, the +5000 odds will look silly.
They are currently two wins outside the top eight, but they face North Melbourne this weekend. The Kangaroos are the worst team in the competition, so it should be a comfortable win for GWS.
AFL Team to Avoid – Collingwood Magpies
There are worse teams in the AFL, including North Melbourne and Hawthorn. However, the Magpies are often overrated by bookmakers and they have been a losing bet.
Once a powerhouse in Aussie Rules, the Magpies sit with three wins and nine losses. It has been a sad fall from grace, so avoid backing them at all cost.
— 9News Melbourne (@9NewsMelb) June 9, 2021
Not even Eddie McGuire can get this team from struggling and there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm in the camp. It’s not a good sign, but bettors typically have to take short odds.
We advise backing against the Magpies, who face the Melbourne Demons in their next contest.