Outside of winning the tournament, the Golden Boot is the most coveted award at UEFA Euros. Antoine Griezmann was the top scorer at Euro 2016 as his six goals helped France reach the final. No player has won two straight Golden Boot awards at the Euros and with a loaded French roster, Griezmann is a longshot to repeat.
The field is wide open, with all contenders at odds of +600 or longer. With that in mind, there is a significant opportunity to make a value bet. We’ll preview the field and make a prediction for a potential winner as well as the best value play.
The Top Contenders:
Harry Kane (+600)
Kane has the shortest odds and for good reason. The Englishman won the Premier League’s Golden Boot award for a third time, as he bagged 23 goals for Tottenham in 2020-21.
He’s the main man for an England team that should create plenty of chances for him and is primed for a deep run in the tournament. He also won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup.
Romelu Lukaku (+675)
Inter Milan won its first scudetto since 2010 as Belgium’s Lukaku scored 24 goals, trailing Cristiano Ronaldo in Serie A. Like Kane, Lukaku is his nation’s undisputed No. 1 striker.
An expected deep run from Belgium should mean plenty of opportunities to score. If playmaker Kevin De Bruyne, who is recovering from facial surgery, misses any time, Lukaku’s chances will suffer though.
Kylian Mbappe (+750)
Mbappe is in contention for the Ballon D’or and a strong showing at the Euros could seal it. The 22-year old French prodigy led Ligue 1 with 27 goals and finished second in Champions League goals.
The return of Karim Benzema to the national team fold could hurt his chances but there should be more than enough goals to go around.
Cristiano Ronaldo (+1000)
The 36-year old is still one of the best players in the world and will participate in his fifth European Championship. He has made more appearances than anyone in Euros history and is the joint-top scorer.
However, Ronaldo has never won the Golden Boot in an international tournament. The honor could be the cherry on top of one of the most illustrious careers in footballing history. His Portugal team might also be more talented than the squad that won in 2016 but is in a brutal group.
Best Value Plays:
Memphis Depay (+2000)
The Netherlands star scored 20 goals in Ligue 1, second only to Mbappe. He’s also in great form, scoring five goals in his last three national team caps. If the Netherlands can reach the semis, he’ll have a good shot.
Robert Lewandowski (+2000)
Lewandowski is the prototypical striker and has been incredible for Bayern Munich. He set a Bundesliga single-season record with 41 goals, even though he missed five games. He has flopped in major tournaments in the past but maybe this is the year he flips the script.
Ciro Immobile (+2500)
Immobile is a misnomer for this impressive Italian. The Lazio man scored five goals in five Champions League games and 20 goals in Serie A this season after winning Europe’s Golden Shoe in 2019/20. This Italian team is underrated and he should certainly get his opportunities in front of goal.
Diogo Jota (+6500)
Before injuries, Jota was one of the signings of the season. He scored 13 goals in 30 appearances for Liverpool in all competitions and has scored three goals in three internationals for Portugal in 2021. Now healthy, he’s an integral part of Portugal’s front three.
Euro 2020 Predictions:
I can’t bet against Kane at +600. Kane scored six goals at the 2018 World Cup and he could easily match or better that total at the Euros. England’s squad is better than the 2018 group that made the World Cup semifinals and has a bunch of creative players who can set him up in Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho, Phil Foden, and Mason Mount.
Lukaku is a close second but Kevin De Bruyne’s injury status is concerning. Mbappe’s France team is simply too talented as any of Mbappe, Benzema and Griezmann could conceivably win the award. Ronaldo’s an interesting choice at +1000 but has some brutal group stage opponents in Germany and France.
Lewandowski doesn’t receive a level of service with Poland that’s anywhere close to what he gets with Bayern and has struggled at major tournaments. Poland does, however, have a favorable group and Lewandowski just won the European Golden Shoe. At +2000, he’s my favorite value bet.